Everything  For Geopolitics

The presence of the Pakistani Taliban “TTP” in Afghanistan and the terrorist activities carried out by this group against Pakistan are considered to be the main reasons for the conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan in the last two years. The country which the Taliban has had many border disputes is Pakistan. Pakistani officials have visited Kabul several times in the past two years and have discussed and negotiated with the Taliban officials about suppressing the “TTP” or expelling them from the territory of Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense claims that Afghan soil is being used against Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif says that although the Taliban government has agreed that Afghan territory will not be used against Pakistan, he claims that the Pakistani Taliban “TTP” is planning attacks against Pakistan in Afghanistan.

At the same time, former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, Mansoor Ahmed Khan, in an article recently published by Arab News, said that the Taliban did not comply with the Doha agreement regarding non-use of Afghan territory against other countries.

Mansoor Ahmad Khan said that in 2022, Al-Qaeda and ISIS continued their terrorist activities in Afghanistan and the movements of Pakistani Taliban, along with Tajik and Uzbek militants, are of concern to Pakistan and China in Central Asia.

After the disagreements between the Taliban and Pakistan, some sources in the National Resistance Front (NRF) which is led by Ahmad Masoud have confirmed that the Taliban and Pakistan have reached an agreement that will push the “TTP” from the Durand Line and possibly moving them to the northern regions of Afghanistan.

The question is, are the Taliban really? And for what purpose they planes to transfer the “TTP” and other groups to the northern regions?

It seems that the “TTP” and other armed groups present in Afghanistan are in the process of moving to the borders of Central Asia and this may be done for the geopolitical interests of the West in order to destabilize Central Asia. Which has a direct impact on Moscow, this is the reason why Putin has increased his visits to the Central Asian countries, in the relevant meetings, he pays a lot of attention to the Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan. The deployment of Russian troops in Tajikistan along with the border with Afghanistan is has also been reported.

Former President Hamid Karzai’s chief of office and former Interior Minister Mohammad Omar Daudzi said in an interview that armed groups are still active in Afghanistan, with the number of 19 to 21 groups.

To clarify the issue here, I would like to briefly mention some groups which are considered a danger for the region and the information has been published in the media.

• IS-Khorasan group

When the republic collapsed and the Taliban came to power, the prisons were opened and the IS-K group in Afghanistan, which numbered at least “2000” radical fighters, escaped.

IS-K is also accused of carrying out a suicide attack on Kabul International Airport on August 28, which killed 13 Americans and more than 170 Afghans.

Upon their arrival, the Taliban immediately executed the former leader of IS-K, Abu Omar Khorasani.

It is believed that the number of IS-K fighters may be more than twice as many as half of them may be foreigners.

• The main group of al-Qaeda

With the success of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri congratulated the Taliban on their success at the end of August. Later, he was killed in an attack by an American drone in the Wazir Akbar Khan area of ​​Kabul. It is a question who gave the quadrant of his residence to the Americans during the rule of the Taliban.? 

However, with the departure of the Americans and the Taliban’s rule, Al-Qaeda has benefited a lot, because some of Al-Qaeda’s closest sympathizers are now cabinet members in the Taliban government, and have important responsibilities.

Mullah Abdul Latif Mansour, the Minister of Water and Energy of the Taliban, said in a meeting, “They (al-Qaeda) are not a terrorist, but our brothers.”

• Al-QAIDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 

An important branch of Al-Qaeda is Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, It is estimated that Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent has about “400” fighters in Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent includes Afghans, citizens of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Myanmar (Burma) who are said to have fought alongside the Taliban against the previous government of Afghanistan.

It is believed that Osama Mahmoud, the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, and his deputy, Atif Yahya, are both living inside Afghanistan.

 Est. In Xinjiang China (ETIM)

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) also known as the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) was first established in China’s Xinjiang region, and reported its first attack in 1998.

According to intelligence assessments, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has between “200” to “700” fighters in Afghanistan who are planning military exercises and attacks on Chinese targets.

• The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan “IMU” was formed in the late 1990s with the help and funding of al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and several “IMU” leaders held positions in the al-Qaeda group. 

This group wants to overthrow the government of Uzbekistan and replace it with an Islamic system.

“IMU” in February 1999 carried out its first attack and detonated five car bombs at the same time in Tashkent the capital of Uzbekistan. It is also believed that this group has also carried out attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Recent intelligence reports show that when the Taliban occupied Afghanistan, the remaining fighters of “IMU” were with them and the Taliban provided them with a free environment to travel.

• Lashkar-e-Taiba

Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded in Pakistan in the 1990s and is sometimes known as Jamaat-e-Dawa. The leader of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, was a friend of Al-Qaeda. The most significant attack related to this group was the deadly attacks in Mumbai, India in November 2008, in which more than 160 people were killed.

In 2006, Lashkar-e-Taiba opened an office in Quetta, Pakistan to help the Taliban in Afghanistan, and it is said that Lashkar-e-Taiba sent fighters to Afghanistan to help the Taliban fight.

• Khatiba Imam Al-Bukhari (KIB)

“KIB” It was formed in 2011 by fighters who were part of the “IMU” and fought alongside the Taliban against the former government of Afghanistan.

The leader of this group is “Dilshad Dehkhanov” who is a citizen of Tajikistan.

Some information shows that “Dehqanov” went to Kabul in last September and asked the Taliban to unite “IMU” under his leadership. According to reports, “Dehkhanov’s” request was not accepted.

• Islamic Jihad

The Islamic Jihad group is considered “the most prepared group of Central Asia for the war in Afghanistan” and is known for having special skills “in combat tactics and bomb making”.

The leader of this group is a citizen of Kyrgyzstan named “Alam Beg Mohamedov”. The deputy leader of the Islamic Jihad group is “Amsatur Atabayev”, who is also a citizen of Tajikistan.

All the those groups that were mentioned were created to achieve Islamic goals, but it is also a fact that these groups are used directly and indirectly for the geopolitical goals of different countries.

In this article, I am trying to understand the strategic goals of the “TTP” its effects on the Taliban and Pakistan relation and how much it is considered as a real and active danger in the region and Pakistan. 

Since the Taliban took the power, there were many meetings which participated most of regional countries in the Central Asia including the Taliban, at end of those meetings issued declarations. 

“That Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Balochistan Liberation Force, Jaish-ul-Adl and all other terrorist groups in Afghanistan are a serious threat to the security of the region and the world”.

These countries have asked the Taliban to fight hard against those groups that these countries consider a threat to their territory and security.

For example, China accuses the East Turkestan group of unrest in its territory and has repeatedly asked the Taliban to take measures against this group.

Iran accuses “Jaish al-Adl” of vandalism and terrorist attacks in its territory.

“TTP” and Baloch are accused of attacks against Pakistan. Also the Central Asian countries consider the related groups as a threat to themselves.

• “TTP” Tabrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and “TTA” Tahrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan: 

The current leader of TTP Noor Wali Mehsud has openly declared his allegiance to the leader of the Taliban of Afghanistan.

It is said that the re-establishment of the Taliban in Afghanistan has given the “TTP” a lot of encouragement, and they have become convinced that they can also overthrow the Pakistani government and impose the Sharia system.

There is a deep friendship between the Taliban and the “TTP”. That is because “TTP” has fought alongside the Taliban against the US and the former government of Afghanistan for many years. Both groups have a single ideological goal: “the establishment of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan and Pakistan”. In addition, it is said that the “TTP” has pledged allegiance to the leader of Taliban behind the scenes and this may further strengthen the relationship between the two groups.

When the Afghan Taliban came to power, they openly gave shelter to members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban released the “TTP” leaders and fighters who were imprisoned by the former Afghan government.

The Afghan Taliban have repeatedly said that they will not allow anyone, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, to attack another country, including Pakistan, from Afghanistan. But the Pakistani officials said that the words and actions of the Afghan Taliban which can stop the “TTP” attacks inside Pakistan, do not match, and the Afghan Taliban have not yet been able to stop these attacks.

Abdullah Khan, a senior defense analyst and head of the Institute of Security and Conflict Studies in Islamabad, says that the Pakistani Taliban have pledged allegiance to the leader of the Afghan Taliban.

Khan worries that Pakistan will witness an escalation of violence in the coming weeks and months.

Abdul Hameed Khorasani, the head of Naser Badri’s operational unit, had a conversation with Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan “TTP” about how to “fight against the government of Pakistan and bring down the government of this country “.

Speaking to Amaj news, Abdul Hamid Khorasani said that this meeting took place during his trip with a group of his forces in South Waziristan.

According to his statements, in this meeting he discussed “how to fight against the government of Pakistan.”

Khorasani promised the leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan any kind of cooperation and declared her support for this group that “one day they will overthrow the government of Pakistan and establish the Islamic Emirate system in Pakistan.”

(TTP) actual and potential threats to Pakistan.

“TTP” which mostly operates in the 2,640 kilometer border (Durand line) region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, is an insurgent group that has carried out attacks in both countries.

Former government of Afghanistan, American forces and the Pakistani army have killed or captured several “TTP” leaders in the past 20 years.

The TTP stepped up its attacks against the Pakistani army and police in November after the group unilaterally ended a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government. The agreement that was reached in Kabul through the mediation of the Afghan Taliban.

• Zhob Attack 

The recent militant attack in the Zhob town of Balochistan, where the Pakistan military lost nine soldiers, was one of the latest in a string of attacks targeting security forces in areas that were previously considered relatively free of militancy.

 This is a separate phenomenon from the insurgency that plagues the Baloch-majority areas of the province; outfits linked to the banned “TTP” and its offshoots are now stepping up their attacks against security personnel in the province’s northern parts traditionally considered Pakhtun-majority areas.

 Though these areas are closer to the border with Afghanistan and also in close proximity to tribal districts such as South Waziristan, they had remained comparatively less affected by terrorist activities in the past.

 Asif Baloch, a Quetta-based newspaper editor, believes that since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, two fronts have been opened against the state, “TTP” has stepped up its attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as the Pakhtun belt of Balochistan.

 In the recent months, the “TTP” has even been trying to make inroads in the Baloch-majority areas of the province, releasing propaganda videos in Balochi.

 As for the new outfit that claimed the audacious attack on the military installation in Zhob using the moniker of Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan experts believe that it is a “cover name” for the “TTP” or one of its affiliated outfits.

• China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

The western route of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor a flagship project of Beijing also passes through the Pakhtun-dominated parts of the province.

 Since China has been trying to consolidate its position in the region, this may as one of the possible reasons behind the rise in attacks there. The security of CPEC has been the responsibility of the Pakistan military, which has tasked the special security division with protecting its assets and infrastructure.

 A security official also pointed out that hostile agencies had been trying to disrupt the peace in Balochistan, attributing such attacks to their intervention in the province.

• American weapons

A security official told to Dawn news paper that the Zhob attack on 12 of July was carried out by five “highly trained and well-equipped terrorists.”

“These terrorists had night vision scopes and the latest gadgets with American weapons,” he said, adding that the attackers seemed to be planning a hostage situation along the lines of the Muslim Bagh attack in Balochistan, that claimed the lives of six soldiers and at least one civilian earlier this year.

Pakistan side believe that the “TTP” who have spiritual and operational linkages with the Afghan Taliban, had managed to arm themselves with the same spoils of war that fighters of the Islamic Emirate have been using.

And there is little question of “TTP” fighters seizing these arms by force, given the bonhomie that exists between the two Taliban factions.

They believe that the availability of such advanced weapons has created significant challenges for the security forces in combating terrorism in Pakistan.

Security sources also believe that the Zhob attack “clearly indicating involvement from the Afghan side”.

While responsibility for the attack was claimed by a little known group calling itself the Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), Pakistan believe that TJP is a wing of TTP.

Conclusion: 

As a conclusion, one scenario can be discussed as a possibility.

Russian President Putin said in a meeting that the weapons sent to Ukraine by the West reached the Middle East through the illegal market and were sold to the Taliban.

After the Mayawali airport attack in this country, Pakistan published pictures of the American weapons that the attackers used in the attack, although Stanakzai, the deputy minister of the Taliban’s foreign affairs ministry, said that these weapons were used It was not given to the perpetrators, but the weapons that Pakistan received during NATO transportation to Afghanistan. At the same time, according to the report of the Iranian media, 3 Iranian “Mossad spies” were arrested on the border with Afghanistan, who were trying to target in Iran by drones. Looking at this hot market of weapons businesses, and looking at the movements in the region it is believed that the region may once again become the center of training and financing of terrorism and another proxy war. This time, this “proxy war” will be more complicated than before, because there are more possibilities of using new technology.

More than any other country in the region, the most damage of this new game reaches two countries “Pakistan and Afghanistan”. If the Taliban continues to strengthen the extremists in this form and based on the current policies, so that finally the people may be trained in extremist ideology. In the same time Pakistan and Afghanistan are not economically and politically capable enough to be able to manage this game, and neither is Pakistan which is struggling with internal conflicts to manage the game. First of all, the world should create such frameworks of interaction with the Taliban that connect Afghanistan with the world politically and economically, and establish good neighborly relations with

Sources: 

By Noorwali KHPALWAK