I propose below a report of the situation in theese days in my country, which I really hope can change with the diplomatic support of the international community:
Summer is the season of war in Afghanistan. Small resistance groups have emerged in many parts of the country. In recent months, many smaller groups have signaled their readiness to fight and pledge to fight against the Taliban. In addition to these groups, an increase in attacks by ISIS or the Islamic State terrorist group could push Afghanistan back to the brink of war.
Coordination of small groups for war.
While the goal of all these groups is to overthrow the Taliban government, they are facing difficulties due to lack of coordination and unity. The Institute for Studies of War, headquartered in Washington DC, released a research report on March 9 entitled “The Taliban and Opposition Groups Prepare for a New Spring War in Afghanistan” prepared by Mr. Peter Mills. “The National Resistance Front (NRF) has stated that it is preparing for attacks in the spring of this year and will continue to carry out attacks targeting the Taliban government,” it said.
The NRF is the first non-IS group to oppose the Taliban, led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of former Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud.
According to reports, the Taliban’s mass arrest campaign is likely to increase local support for the NRF, a campaign led by a senior Taliban commander Gorzang with links to the Haqqani network.
Peter Mills said that in order for these groups to have a decisive influence in competing with the Taliban government, more coordination and unity is needed.
Jonathan Schroeder, director of the Threats and Challenges Program at a non-profit research and analysis organization, says the lack of coordination between these groups has led to the group’s inability to form a broad-based resistance movement. Experts say the uprisings could last for years and that what is today a small group of, these groups could turn into a full-scale and bloody uprising.
The Taliban and the readiness for war.
The Taliban are also actively sending troops to northern and other parts of Afghanistan to limit the capabilities of anti-Taliban forces in the spring. Shortly after the Interior Ministry’s Special Forces entered the Panjshir Valley on January 31, the Taliban began sending aid to the Panjshir Valley, including the Taliban’s Red Brigade forces, on February 2, local reporters reported. The Ministry of Interior has sent several thousand Taliban fighters to the valley. Abdul Haq Wasiq, the Taliban’s intelligence chief, visited the Panjshir Valley on February 7 to assess the security situation. According to reports, Mullah Mohammad Yaqub, the Taliban’s defense minister, entered Panjshir province on February 21 to conduct a military operation against the NRF.
Overall, these actions show that the Taliban leadership is concerned about (NRF) attacks in the Panjshir Valley and wants to take a more proactive stance against (NRF) forces. In Herat province, the Taliban-Al-Farooq corps deployed three battalions on February 10 in Jawand, Ab Kamari and Tagab Alam districts of Badghis province. The Taliban’s Al-Farooq Corps deployed another battalion in the Barchman district of Farah province on 14 February. The 3rd Brigade of the 217 Omari Corps of the Taliban conducted military exercises and maneuvers in Baghlan province on 19th February. The 7th Brigade of the 207 Taliban Omari Corps conducted a military exercise near Farkhar district in the southeast of Taloqan city in Takhar province on 21 February.
The Taliban’s 203 Mansoori Corps sent 1500 troops from Paktia province to Bamyan province on February 22th.
The deployments and exercises come as popular pro-Taliban social media accounts report that the Taliban sent thousands of additional security forces to Takhar and Badakhshan provinces, some Afghan journalists reporting that the Taliban government has been deployed ten thousands additional troops in Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan and Kunduz provinces, under the guise of additional deployments, and it appears the Taliban may be sending more troops to northern Afghanistan.
The Taliban formed a new battalion in the Kohistan district of Kapisa province on 12 February. Taliban security forces, led by Mullah Fazel Mazloom, the Taliban’s deputy defense minister, began conducting house-to-house searches on February 25 in Kabul and nearby provinces to crack down on insurgents, according to reports from the Haqqani network and Both Taliban groups in Kandahar support the operation.
The Taliban are also conducting security operations in eastern Afghanistan, In Nangarhar province, the local Taliban leadership has inaugurated a new military unit called the (Panipat) Operational and Security Unit at the Nangarhar governor’s office, according to reports The unit will be responsible for conducting (special targeted operations), according to Abdul Hamid Khorasani, the unit was created to counter the IS-KP re-emergence, although in the past few weeks IS-KP There has been a significant drop in activity, but it should also not be overlooked that the Taliban continue to build new military forces in the region, indicating that they are concerned about IS-KP.
War and Pakistan.
Pakistan has been controlled by the military since its inception. The civilian governments there are only symbolic, Foreign policy, especially against Afghanistan and India is determined by the Pakistani military, Foreign policy instruments against it should be war issues, especially terrorism. The recent tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan along the Durand Line have made Pakistan anxious to rethink the Durand Line, and how Afghanistan Make it a battleground to facilitate the activities of terrorist groups and their transition to the region.
Pakistan’s intelligence chief Nadeem Anjum is probably meet with key Afghan politicians, including Abdul Rashid Dostum, Atta Mohammad Noor and Mohammad Mohaqiq, in Ankara, Turkey, on February 13, according to reports, Ahead of this meeting, Anjum meet the NRF chief Ahmad Massoud in an undisclosed regional country, possibly in Tajikistan.
Anjum called on the meeting to respond to Pakistan’s concerns over the (deteriorating situation) in Afghanistan and claimed that Pakistan wanted to maintain strategic relations with non-Pashtun Afghan politicians who were well-suited for a compromise on the Durand Line.
According to reports, Atta Noor’s close aide Wasif Hakimi said that Anjum was unhappy with the Taliban government for not including other Afghan political parties in the government.
Popular pro-Taliban social media accounts denounced the meeting as a “betrayal” of Pakistan and called for military action against Pakistan, the ongoing border violence would further complicate relations between Pakistan and the Taliban government. This will cause Pakistan to increase its ties with the anti-Taliban forces.
1- Freedom Front.
One of these new militant groups is the Afghan Liberation Front, which released a video on February 4 showing its determination to fight the Taliban, using a special flag and so on, Apparently not affiliated with the NRF, the group’s spokesman criticized the Taliban as a “terrorist group” that has kidnapped and killed women, journalists and civil society activists and starved millions of Afghans.
2- Wolf Unit
Unconfirmed reports in early February suggest that Yar Mohammad Dostum, the eldest son of the famous Uzbek commander in Afghanistan, Abdul Rashid Dostum, is preparing to enter Afghanistan and has formed a new group called the “Wolf Unite”.
3-National Liberation Front of Afghanistan.
The Afghan National Liberation Front (ANLF) has released a video announcing its presence in the mountains of Kapisa province to launch an armed resistance against the Taliban. The video also includes several women protesting against the Taliban government, Speaking and referring to them as “occupiers”, the speakers spoke in Dari and Pashto, suggesting that the group may be multi-ethnic.
The group has not identified its leader, but recent reports suggest that former Afghan Defense Minister and Chief of Staff Yasin Zia is one of its leaders.
4- Turkestan’s Freedom Tigers.
Another armed militant group, the Freedom Tigers of Turkestan, attacked a Taliban checkpoint south of the city of Sheberghan in Jawzjan province on 7 February.
5-National Islamic Movement for the Independence of Afghanistan.
The group, led by Abdul Matin Sulemankhel, a former commander of the Afghan National Army’s Special Forces, announced its existence on February 16 and is believed to be the largest Pashtana anti-Taliban group in the country, Suleimankhel said, Formed in response to executions of former Afghan army members and desert courts. He called the Taliban’s amnesty a lie.
Suleimankhel claimed in an interview with Afghanistan International Television on April 13 that the group had military and political activities in 26 provinces of Afghanistan.
The group’s allegations about the killing of a Taliban commander in Helmand appear to be credible.
5- General Sami Sadat
General Sami Sadat, a well-known military general in Afghanistan, has considerable experience fighting the Taliban, leading a historic battle in Helmand that has resulted in numerous casualties for the Taliban, a modern-day technologist and an internationalist. He has also declared war, expressed his support for the National Resistance Front, and a voicemail related to him on social media indicates that he is working on the integration of the Afghan Special Forces and will continue his work after Eid. Start activities.
6- Unidentified armed group in Herat zone (Badghis).
Unidentified gunmen bombed a mosque in Qala-e-Naw, the capital of Badghis province, on February 11, according to reports, two local Tajik Taliban commanders, Noor Agha and Saleh Mohammad Pardel, operating in Ab Kamari and Qadis districts, who revolted against the Taliban leadership in Badghis province in mid-January, Idris Mubarez, the (NRF) commander, announced a new NRF group in the same district on 18 February.
7- Other groups
In recent weeks, small anti-Taliban groups linked to former Balkh governor Atta Mohammad Noor have appeared in a series of videos apparently taken in northern Afghanistan.
In a recent video, several armed men wearing masks and posing as members of the “High Council of Resistance” identified themselves as “Noors” These men then threaten to start guerrilla warfare if they receive orders from (Noor).
Other groups that have made their efforts public in recent weeks and have little information about their leadership and capabilities include the Freedom Squad, the Hazaristan Army, the Democracy and Liberation Front.
Afghanistan’s complex geographical location, geopolitical situation and history indicate that these small groups will be used for foreign political purposes and the country will once again be plunged into war.
On the other hand, looking at the current Taliban government, it seems that no country has been recognized so far and no country has stood behind this government, so it will be difficult for the Taliban to resist, given that the republic has resisted the Taliban for 20 years, The reason given was that the whole world stood with the Afghan government politically, economically, culturally and militarily. And also some mistakes in policies of the Taliban could lead the world to conclude that reconciliation with the Taliban is impossible and that publicly, it must stand with the opposition and provide them with logistical support. Taliban would need to rethink their strategy and find diplomatic solutions inside and outside the country to avoid constant war situations and to gain position in the international community.
These and many other indications are that the country is once again heading for a bloody war, and that the Taliban need to change its hardline policies in order to establish a clear engagement with the world, Place all sides in and step together with the world.
The international community must also pay close attention to Afghanistan’s fragile political, economic and security situation so that it does not once again fall into the trap of terrorism, so that the world does not witness the 9/11 attacks again.
Sources has been used in this article.
1- (AFGHANISTAN IN REVIEW: TALIBAN AND OPPOSITION GROUPS PREPARE FOR A NEW SPRING FIGHTING SEASON IN AFGHANISTAN Publishing by Institute for the Study of War, written by Peter Mills, date march 9- 2022
2- DW Pashto Website