Geopolitics and Market Updates First Quarter 2024

We confirm the vision of a global war, that is, world war but in pieces where we want to establish the boundaries between the old American empire in decline and new potential ideas of the Chinese empire in Asia and the Iranian empire in the Middle East.

Asia:

Russia in Ukraine is winning tactically (it has taken about 25% of Ukrainian territory) but it is strategically losing because it is now in the arms of China, its historical enemy. In fact, today China boasts of wheat and hydrocarbons bought cheaply in Yuan from Siberia and holds the region (Siberian where most of the energy resources are located) below it. 

China, given the aging of its population, has a window of up to 10-15 years to attack Taiwan by going into direct war against the USA, a war that is expected to be maritime for the control of the Strait of Formosa, and not for the rare earths (which we remember are not rare because they are scarce but because it is difficult and very expensive to find and extract them and work them).

For the above, the USA now wants to reopen to Russia and divide it from China. 

India grows as its internal problems grow.

Japan will very likely continue the rally of its financial indices throughout 2024.

Middle East:

Iran has blocked Abraham’s agreements by Oct. 7 attack with the will to say that Israel is not really able to protect the region and keep it safe (and intervenes with the Houtis to pressure the West to stop subsidizing Israel and isolate it).

Sectors:

Bitcoin with the arrival of the ETF seems to change its rules of price trend. In fact, it did not make corrections (still but little is missing now) before the rise in pre-halving force and this, together with the fact that there are the Whales waiting (the large Bitcoin portfolios) and the active ETFs, makes bitcoin on the one hand very attractive on the other even more risky because it is no longer as mathematically predictable in its pre and post halving waves as it was before. The calculations give the highs in 2025 between 130 thousand and 300 thousand dollars to Bitcoin, institutional analysts give highs at 85 thousand dollars, perhaps more plausible given the lack of return to the POC in the chart to load volumes for a more important climb. However, everything is uncertain at the moment. Bullish sentiment remains throughout 2024.

Artificial intelligence continues to drag the market in the form of a bubble that doesn’t seem to have to burst this year or at least not before the summer.

With regard to Bitcoin and AI, it should be noted that blockchain and artificial intelligence are tools that have the power to radically change the financial system.

The decline in the prices of luxury watchmaking indices as an investment tends to stabilize.

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