A Multipolar World 🌍

Postato il di Gianpaolo
Photo by Pixabay

Reflections on Economy, Market and Society for the year to come*

The Human Advisor Project proposes some reflections on the year that is about to come. It is recommended to read the disclaimer note at the end of the text. The report is divided into short and summary paragraphs, please request in the comment section if you would like to deepen one or more of the topics below in future reports and articles. Let’s get started.

The evolution of Globalization

The era of the West as the center of the world is over. The new trend now, in the West, will be to consider the world as a two-pole world with a democratic bloc and an authoritarian bloc. However, this seems to be an overly simplistic and naive definition. The rise of alternative powers to the two US-CHINA blocs seems to be foreshadowing an evolution in the direction of a multipolar world within which exchanges of resources and services will continue both between blocs and within the blocs. The market will suffer from the moment of tension caused by this change, but in the long run it will benefit. Nationalist and populist movements will be able to arise and proliferate temporarily in the initial phase of this process, but clashing with the economic needs of global market union that will make them mature and/or lose ground in the medium and long term. It is also noteworthy that we are preparing to reach 10 billion people on planet earth in a few years, with all the challenges in terms of food supply, population density, migration, security, energy and pollution that this will bring.

Climate change and social justice

From Cop27, some main scenarios have emerged:
There is no agreement at global level on how to reduce emissions.
Europe is a leader in regulation with the US, which could supplant it as early as this year. At the moment, the focus seems to be on the rebalancing of social justice between developed and emerging countries, to the extent that the west will have to (would they already have to?) create and/or support the emerging countries in the process of adaptation to current climatic conditions (provoked mainly by the developed countries). A Cop28 more focused on decarbonization is expected next year.

War in Ukraine as a regional and non-world war

The war in Ukraine that seemed to result in a world-nuclear-war in the second quarter of 2022, now appears to have stabilized as a ‘regional’ war, only European. The consequences on the rest of the world are visible but not as much as if it had broken out a few decades ago. This makes us reflect on the role of an increasingly less central Europe at world level, that is, more and more a single subject among a multitude of subjects, political, economic and military, within a multipolar world.

The future monetary war

Strong dollar, weak euro, and other raising currencies. The Chinese digital currency is in the pipeline, which wants to become the main exchange currency of the BRICS countries (which would also like to incorporate Dubai). All this monetary ferment seems to foreshadow a future currency war. Among these currencies, one certainly represents the most ambiguous but interesting: Bitcoin. Much down from last year’s highs but very high compared to its pre-covid levels, with its strong assumptions and projections still very promising in the long term, despite the expensive and polluting mining issue.

Inflation and Central Banks

Inflation (to 70% due to the increase in the cost of food and energy due to the war in Ukraine) is the big issue of these last months. The loss of purchasing power of households is beginning to be felt and, while in America there is already talk of the ‘beginning of the end of inflation’, in Europe, although it seems that the peak has reached, high inflation will still seem to remain present throughout 2023, thus impacting the cost of living and eroding uninvested savings or money on the current accounts of savers. Central banks are running for cover, in fact, the FED and the ECB seem to want to continue to use the hard fist, raising interest rates on the money lent to the banks, which consequently raise mortgage rates, thus triggering a difficult situation for businesses and citizens. At the moment, inflation forecasts are not rosy for Europe. To run for cover, many think of lightening their liquidity by investing in the rising bond market or buying Real Estate, mainly in the ‘Logistics’ and Private Luxury sector (a big “No” for the commercial real estate sector in sharp devaluation from the pandemic).

Bear market

It is given by everyone as certain a more contained growth in the two-year period 2023/2024 with a “bear” or dormant market, or even in a slight decline in Europe (recession) and very light or absent in the USA. This would represent a significant disadvantage for investors who opened their market positions in 2021 who are now losing double-digit percentages, but a considerable advantage for those who want to open them (especially in solid stock) positions in the next year by buying on weaknesses.

Luxury

The crisis, as always, is not felt by the richest groups of society, which are becoming richer and richer and who, even driven by inflation, tend less and less to take liquidity on account and prefer to spend, and sometimes even invest, in the luxury sector. Although down from last year due to the war in Ukraine, buying a Rolex still means doubling if not tripling your investment at the exact time of purchase. In fact, a Steel Daytona purchased today at 12K€ from that elité that has access to the waiting lists of retailers, can be exchanged in the gray watch market for about 25/30K€. Watches thus become no longer tools but jewels: Swiss watchmaking houses are increasingly shifting towards the use of precious metals and sought-after mechanisms, raising customer entry-level prices to 20/30 thousand euros (comes to 7/8 a few years ago). This is also because of the total absorption of the market for ‘technical’ or ‘instrumental’ watches by the tech industry. Suffice it to say that Apple alone sells more watches per year comparing to the entire Swiss industry put together. Apple has recently come out with the first model of diving and hiking smartwatch. It is thus expected a gradual distancing of the Swiss industry from the ‘stainless steel’ to the luxury good in gold and diamonds or platinum (and an overvaluation of the Vintage given the poor availability of some models).

Layoffs, BigTech Crisis and Labour Market

However, very few are those who can afford to buy luxury goods, especially given the drastic increase in layoffs in the world due to the fear of recession and the bear market. In fact, the bear market bogeyman seems to have pushed the American technological giants to fire tens of thousands of workers. However, in the opinion of many analysts, this is not a strange fact, but a healthy and natural evolution of such companies that evidently, after a period of unicorn traction and over-price on the stock market, due to their boom and post-pandemic, begin to become more mature, solid, well-managed and therefore promising companies in the long term (and less volatile). Clearly this is devastating from the point of view of the workers concerned, but only if you think of the world of work in the ‘ancient’ way or the way in which it is necessary to work for a living. As automation is constantly advancing, the future scenario that is now facing with certainty is that of increasingly automated work and the creation of alternative subsidy tools to work such as universal income or UBI (Universal Basic Income). In this sense, Germany has begun working on the creation of a citizenship income to cover the loss of jobs of German citizens. Jobs that probably, in many cases, will not be get back. In contrast to Italy, which abolishes its already precarious citizenship income, but more for ideological reasons it seems and without putting tangible alternatives at the moment. So strong social and humanitarian crises are expected even in the West due to the reticence of the legislators to regularize this practice of “monthly non-repayable survival allowance” by the state to every citizen who will be (in academic circles and among the elité of American entrepreneurs it has already been mentioned for years as the only solution to unemployment from automation) the formula. 

Millennials and GenerationZ

Two generations face the world of work. Millennials and GenerazioneZ are the workers/citizens/leaders-politicians/entrepreneurs/investors of the present/future. In order to understand how these generations will approach business, economic, financial, social and political life, we must first consider what we know about them. Of the millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) we know that they are the most educated generation ever. This on the one hand pushes them to think they ‘already know everything’ even when in reality this is not the case. On the other hand, it pushes them to want to distinguish themselves, to want to emerge and to increase their wealth, cognitive, experiential, consumerist and financial. They are also very politicised in different countries of the world, but that is not necessarily why they are recognised in mainstream politics. Of GenerationZ (born between 1997 and 2012) what we know is that they are babies born with the ‘screen in the cradle’. They have never seen a program on television or read a paper newspaper and everything for them exists more in the virtual than in the real one, in the present extemporaneous rather than in the planned future. Social interactions are predominantly mediated between them by the technological medium, via chat (phone calls are considered an invasion). Their private sphere is very wide and the level of comfort they are used to is very high. Their attention lasts no more than 8 seconds and the enjoyment of one content for them is difficult to go beyond 15 minutes. GenerationZ is likely to be renamed CyberGeneration. The next one will continue that trend. 

Metaverse

In this perspective, the space for the birth of a new world is foreshadowed, first only imagined in science fiction novels and today already partial reality: the Metaverse. Meta, whose stock is down sharply today due to non-return spending policy, is the most interesting company to look at in this regard. It is in fact creating the platform and the device (i.e. software and hardware) through which all internet users in a medium and long-term time horizon will interface with the network for activities such as working, communicating, socializing, having fun, enjoying entertainment content (including those for adults), playing sports and much more. All from home, in your own comfort zone and without invading your private sphere, in line with the needs of GenerazioneZ. Other companies are chasing Meta in both America and China. Possible mergers are on the horizon in my opinion, so you will have to be careful, but investing in this sector (wide and not mono-company), over a time horizon of 10/15 years, could give very high returns.

Market prospects: crisis/opportunity

In addition to the metaverse and cryptocurrencies today at attractive prices, there are other interesting prospects in the market in my opinion:
EM Asia: The emerging countries of Asia and the Pacific are, according to almost all reports, the driving economies of the coming years followed by Nigeria (still risky and too immature politically).
Health care (home diagnosis and oncology immunology): In the health sector, there are excellent potential results in the medium to long term with regard to DIY diagnostics (home devices connected to the smartphone) and oncology immunology (cancer vaccines).
Pet: A close eye should be given to the sector that concerns pets and everything that revolves around them. In sharp rise and with great future potential.
Bond: Fixed coupon bonds are back. Certainly the most cautious investors will make use of it. Beware, however, to the fact that compared to the Bonds of a few years ago, these have some little more risks. It is therefore better to be cautious and always diversify.

The commitment of the HAP in the world: Ukraine Africa and Afghanistan 

Our commitment abroad remains strong on three fronts:
Ukraine: The situation of internal refugees, that is, the people who have been left homeless for the war, is very serious. The most important thing now is for us to intervene not only on a psychological but also socio-economic level. The people, as had been predicted by our report sent to President Draghi last February, have suffered devastating damage on all levels. It is necessary at this time to rehabilitate them psychologically but also to reintegrate them from a social and work point of view. Innovative poles must be created scattered throughout western Ukraine (it is possible that for a period there will be two Ukraines) where IDPs (internal disposable person) can start from scratch in safety and therefore live, work and socialize. Our head of Ukraine Emergency Dr. Viktor Vus now in Kiev is already on the front line on this front and in constant contact with me.
Africa: As far as the African continent is concerned, we have decided to focus on Rwanda and work on supporting adolescent mothers. Girls aged 13 to 18 who got pregnant due to rape or absence of sex education and who now find themselves being minors with minors dependent on them, no economic resources and no education. We will work to improve their conditions. Dr. Ronald Kimuli, head of Human Advisor Project Africa is already operational in this regard and in constant contact with me. 
Afghanistan: The situation in Afghanistan is disastrous. There are parents forced to drug their children to make them sleep. There is no food, there is no infrastructure and many have lost their homes as a result of natural disasters. As much as the issue of education is central to us in a country like Afghanistan, as can be seen from our policy paper, we are now focusing first on humanitarian aid. Dr. Noorwali Khpalwak is operating from Paris and we have a team on site in Kabul in constant contact with us led by Dr. Samiullah Ahmadzai.

The next summary report will presumably be published at the end of next year.

Dott. Gianpaolo Marcucci

President of the “Human Advisor Project”

*This text is to be considered a free reflection for study and research purposes. It is not to be considered scientific, commercial or informative material nor does it necessarily represent the thought of Gianpaolo Marcucci or the Human Advisor Project. Any consideration or forecast is considered valid only until the time of publication of this text i.e. November 30, 2022 at 14:00 GMT+1 and no later and may also change completely at any time thereafter. The conclusions reported in it were elaborated following studies and analysis of written, audio, video materials and reports from specialized institutes such as: ISPI, Julius Bär, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Sole 24 ore, Il fatto Quotidiano. Neither Gianpaolo Marcucci nor the Human Advisor Project is in any way responsible for the actions the reader will take as a result of reading this document. For additional info: Legal Team Human Advisor Project

Author: Gianpaolo Marcucci

 Il mondo 🌍 Multipolare 

Postato il di Gianpaolo
Photo by Pixabay

Riflessioni su Economia, Mercato e Società per l’anno a venire*

Lo Human Advisor Project nella persona del presidente Gianpaolo Marcucci propone alcune riflessioni sull’anno che sta per arrivare a partire dall’anno passato. Si raccomanda di leggere la nota disclaimer alla fine del testo. Il report è diviso in brevi e sintetici paragrafi, si prega di richiedere nei commenti se si volesse approfondire uno o più temi tra i sotto riportati in futuri report e articoli. Iniziamo.

L’evoluzione della Globalizzazione

È finita l’epoca dell’occidente come centro del mondo. La tendenza ora dell’occidente sarà quella di considerare il mondo come a due poli, blocco democratico e blocco autoritario. Tuttavia questa sembra essere una definizione eccessivamente semplicistica e ingenua. L’ascesa di potenze alternative ai due blocchi USA-CINA sembra far presagire una evoluzione nella direzione di un mondo multipolare all’interno del quale si proseguiranno gli scambi di risorse e servizi sia tra blocchi che all’interno dei blocchi. Il mercato risentirà del momento di tensione provocato da questo cambiamento, ma alla lunga ne gioverà. Movimenti nazionalisti e populisti potranno sorgere e proliferare temporaneamente nella fase iniziale di questo processo, scontrandosi però con le necessità economiche di unione globale del mercato che li farà maturare e/o perdere terreno nel medio e lungo termine. Notabile anche che ci apprestiamo a raggiungere quota 10 miliardi di persone sul pianeta terra in pochi anni, con tutte le sfide in termini di approvvigionamento di cibo, densità di popolazione, migrazioni, sicurezza, energia e inquinamento che questo porterà.

Cambiamenti climatici e giustizia sociale

Dal Cop27 sono emersi alcuni principali scenari:
Non c’è nessun accordo a livello globale su come ridurre le emissioni.
L’Europa è leader nella regolazione con gli USA che potrebbero soppiantarla già quest’anno.
In questo momento l’attenzione sembra andare sopratutto verso il riequilibrio della giustizia sociale tra paesi sviluppati e emergenti, nella misura in cui i primi dovranno (avrebbero già dovuto?) creare e/o sovvenzionare strumenti di supporto per l’adattamento dei secondi alle attuali condizioni climatiche (provocate principalmente dai primi). L’anno prossimo ci si aspetta un Cop28 più incentrato sulla decarbonizzazione. 

Guerra in Ucraina come guerra regionale e non mondiale

La guerra in Ucraina che sembrava sfociare in guerra atomica mondiale nel secondo trimestre del 2022, appare essersi ora stabilizzata come una guerra “regionale” solo europea. Le conseguenze sul resto del mondo sono visibili ma non così tanto come se fosse scoppiata qualche decennio fa. Questo fa riflettere sul ruolo di un’Europa sempre meno centrale a livello mondiale, ovvero sempre più soggetto singolo tra una moltitudine di soggetti, politici, economici e militari, all’interno di un mondo, appunto, multipolare. 

La futura guerra monetaria 

Dollaro forte, Euro debole, e altre monete in salita. In cantiere la moneta digitale cinese che vuole diventare la principale valuta di scambio dei paesi del BRICS (che vorrebbero incorporare anche Dubai). Tutto questo fermento monetario pare prefigurare una guerra di valute. Tra queste valute, una sicuramente rappresenta la più ambigua eppur interessante: il Bitcoin. Molto in calo rispetto ai massimi dell’anno scorso ma molto in salita rispetto ai suoi livelli pre-covid, con i suoi presupposti ben saldi e le proiezioni ancora molto promettenti sul lungo termine, nonostante la questione mining costoso e inquinante.  

Inflazione e Banche Centrali
L’inflazione(al 70% per aumento del costo del cibo e dell’energia a causa della guerra in Ucraina)è il grande temadi questi mesi. La perdita di potere d’acquisto delle famiglie si inizia a far sentire e, mentre in America si parla già di “inizio della fine dell’inflazione”, in Europa, seppur pare che si sia toccato il picco, un’alta inflazione sembrerà restare ancora  presente per tutto il 2023, impattando così sul costo della vita ed erodendo i risparmi non investiti ovvero i soldi sui conti correnti dei risparmiatori. A correre ai ripari sono le banche centrali, FED E BCE infatti  pare in tal scendo vogliano continuare a usare il pugno duro, alzando i tassi di interesse sul denaro prestato alle banche, che di conseguenza alzano i tassi dei mutui e finanziamenti innescando così una situazione difficile per imprese e cittadini. Al momento le previsioni sull’inflazione non sono rosee per l’Europa. Per correre ai ripari in molti pensano di alleggerire la propria liquidità investendo nel mercato obbligazionario in risalita o acquistando Real Estate, prevalentemente nel settore della “Logistica” e del privato di Lusso (un secco no invece per il settore di immobili commerciali in netta svalutazione dalla pandemia). 

Bear market

È da tutti data come certa una più contenuta crescita nel biennio 2023/2024 con un mercato “orso” o dormiente, o addirittura in leggera flessione in Europa (recessione) e leggerissima o assente in USA. Questo rappresenterebbe uno svantaggio notevole per gli investitori che hanno aperto le loro posizioni su mercato nel 2021 che ora stanno perdendo percentuali a due cifre, ma un vantaggio non indifferente per chi vuole aprirle (sopratutto nell’azionario solido) posizioni nel prossimo anno acquistando sulle debolezze. 

Settore del Lusso

La crisi, come sempre, non è sentita dalle fasce più ricche della società, che diventano sempre più ricche e che, anche spinte dall’inflazione, tendono sempre meno a tenere sul conto liquidità e si deliziano, ma a volte anche investono, nel settore del lusso. Seppur in calo rispetto all’anno scorso a causa della guerra in Ucraina, ancora oggi acquistare un Rolex significa raddoppiare se non triplicare il proprio investimento al momento esatto dell’acquisto. Infatti un Daytona Acciaio acquistato oggi a 12mila€ da quell’elité che ha accesso alle liste di attesa dei rivenditori, si può scambiare nel mercato grigio degli orologi per circa 25/30 mila€. Gli orologi diventano così non più strumenti ma gioielli: le case svizzere di orologeria si stanno sempre più spostando verso l’uso dei metalli preziosi e di meccanismi ricercati, alzando i prezzi di entry level della clientela a 20/30 mila euro (contro i 7/8 di qualche anno fa e in Italia qualche milione di Lire di un tempo). Questo anche per il totale assorbimento del mercato degli orologi “tecnici” o “strumentali” da parte dell’industria Tech. Basti pensare che Apple da sola vende  all’anno più orologi dell’intera industria svizzera messa insieme. Apple è uscito da poco con il primo modello di smartwatch da immersione ed escursione. Si prevede così un distanziamento graduale dell’industria svizzera dallo “strumentale in acciaio” verso il bene di lusso in oro e diamanti o platino (e una supervalutazione del Vintage data la scarsa reperibilità di alcuni modelli).

Licenziamenti, Crisi del BigTech e mercato del lavoro

Pochissimi sono comunque coloro che possono permettersi di acquistare beni di lusso, sopratutto visto anche l’aumento drastico di licenziamenti nel mondo dovuto alla paura della recessione e del mercato orso. Proprio lo spauracchio del Bear Market infatti pare aver spinto i colossi tecnologici americani a licenziare decine di migliaia dei lavoratori. Questo a parere di molti analisti non rappresenta tuttavia una fatto strano, bensì un’evoluzione sana e naturale di tali compagnie che evidentemente, dopo un periodo di trazione da unicorno e di sovra-prezzamento in borsa dei titoli, dovuto al loro boom e al post pandemia, iniziano a divenire compagnie più mature, solide, ben gestite e quindi promettenti sul lungo termine (e meno volatili). Chiaramente questo è devastante dal punto dei vista dei lavoratori interessati, ma solo se si pensa al mondo del lavoro alla maniera “antica” ovvero  alla maniera per cui sia necessario lavorare per vivere. Essendo l’automazione in continuo avanzamento, lo scenario futuro che si prospetta ormai con certezza è quello di un lavoro sempre più automatizzato e della creazione di strumenti di sussidio alternativi al lavoro come il reddito universale o UBI (Universal Basic Income). In questo senso la Germania, economica europea di traino, ha iniziato i lavori per la creazione di un reddito di cittadinanza a copertura della perdita dei posti di lavoro dei cittadini tedeschi. Posti di lavoro che probabilmente, in molti casi non verranno ritrovati. In controtendenza l’Italia che abolisce il suo già precario reddito di cittadinanza, ma più per ragioni ideologiche pare e senza porre alternative tangibili al momento. Si prevedono così forti crisi sociali e umanitarie anche in occidente a causa della reticenza dei legislatori a regolarizzare tale pratica di “assegno mensile di sopravvivenza a fondo perduto” da parte dello stato ad ogni cittadino che sarà (negli ambienti accademici e tra l’elitè di imprenditori americani se ne parla già da anni come unica soluzione alla disoccupazione da automazione) la formula del futuro accanto all’automazione quasi-totale del lavoro. 

Millennials e Generazione Z

Due generazioni si affacciano al mondo del lavoro. Millennials e GenerazioneZ sono i lavoratori/cittadini/leader-politici/imprenditori/investitori del presente/futuro. Per comprendere come queste si approcceranno alla vita aziendale, economica, finanziaria, sociale e politica va considerato innanzitutto ciò che sappiamo di loro. Dei millennials (nati tra 1981 e 1996) sappiamo che sono la generazione più scolarizzata di sempre. Questo da un lato li spinge a pensare di “sapere già tutto” anche quando in realtà non è così. Dall’altro li spinge a volersi distinguere, a voler emergere e ad aumentare il proprio patrimonio, conoscitivo, esperienziale, consumistico e finanziario. Sono inoltre molto politicizzati in diversi paesi del mondo ma non per questo necessariamente si riconoscono nella politica mainstream. Della GenerazioneZ (nati tra 1997 e 2012) ciò che sappiamo è che sono bambini nati con lo “schermo nella culla”. Non hanno mai visto un programma in televisione o letto un giornale cartaceo e tutto per loro esiste più nel virtuale che nel reale, nell’estemporaneo presente più che nel futuro programmato. Le interazioni sociali sono tra di loro prevalentemente mediate dal mezzo tecnologico, via chat (le telefonate sono considerate un invasione di campo). La loro sfera privata è molto ampia e il livello di confort a cui sono abituati molto alto. Il loro span di attenzione dura non più 8 secondi e la fruizione di contenuti per loro è difficile che vada oltre i 15 minuti. La generazioneZ sarà probabilmente ribattezzata la CyberGeneration. Quella successiva proseguirà tale tendenza. 

Metaverso

In quest’ottica si prefigura lo spazio per la nascita di un nuovo mondo, dapprima solo immaginato nei romanzi di fantascienza e oggi già parziale realtà: il Metaverso. Meta, il cui titolo oggi è in forte calo a causa della politica di spesa senza rientro, è l’azienda più interessante da guardare in questo senso. Essa sta infatti creando la piattaforma e il device (ovvero il software e l’hardware) attraverso i quali tutti gli utenti internet in un orizzonte temporale a medio e lungo termine si interfacceranno alla rete per attività quali lavorare, comunicare, socializzare, divertirsi, fruire contenuti di intrattenimento (compresi quelli per adulti), fare sport e molto altro. Tutto da casa propria, nella propria zona di confort e senza invadere la propria sfera privata, in linea con le esigenze della GenerazioneZ. Altre compagnie stanno rincorrendo Meta sia in America che in Cina. Possibili fusioni sono all’orizzonte a mio avviso, bisognerà quindi essere cauti, ma investire in tale comparto (ampio e non mono-aziendale), su un orizzonte temporale di 10/15 anni, potrebbe dare rendimenti molto alti. 

Le prospettive del Mercato, crisi/opportunità

Oltre al metaverso e le criptovalute oggi a prezzi appetibili, ci sono altre prospettive interessanti sul mercato a mio avviso: 

EM asia: I paesi emergenti di Asia e Pacifico sono, secondo quasi tutti i report, le economiche di traino dei prossimi anni seguite dalla Nigeria (ancora rischiosa e troppo immatura politicamente). 

Health care (home diagnostic e immunologia oncologica): Nel settore sanitario, si registrano ottimi risultati potenziali nel medio-lungo per quanto concerne la diagnostica fai da te (dispositivi casalinghi collegati allo smartphone) e l’immunologia oncologica (vaccini per il cancro).  

Pet: Un occhio attento va dato al settore che riguarda gli animali da compagnia e tutto ciò che vi gira intorno. In netto rialzo e con grandi potenzialità future.  

Bond: Sono tornate le obbligazioni con cedola fissa. Di sicuro gli investitori più cauti ne faranno uso. Attenzione però al fatto che rispetto ai Bond di qualche anno fa, questi hanno qualche piccolo rischio in più. Meglio essere quindi cauti e sempre diversificare. 

L’impegno dell’HAP: Ucraina Africa e Afghanistan 

Il nostro impegno all’estero rimane forte su tre fronti:
Ucraina: La situazione dei rifugiati interni, ovvero le persone che per la guerra sono rimaste senza casa, è gravissima. La cosa più importante adesso è per noi intervenire non solo a livello psicologico ma anche socio-economico. Le persone, come era stato previsto dal nostro rapporto mandato a Febbraio scorso al presidente Draghi, hanno subito un danno devastante su tutti i piani. E’ necessario in questo momento riabilitarle psicologicamente ma anche reintegrarle dal punto di vista sociale e lavorativo. Vanno creati dei un poli innovativi sparsi per l’Ucraina  occidentale (è possible che per un periodo esisteranno due Ucraine) dove gli IDPs (internal disposable person) possano ripartire da zero in sicurezza e quindi abitare, lavorare e socializzare. Il nostro responsabile della Ukraine Emergency Dr. Viktor Vus ora a Kiev è già in prima linea su questo fronte e in costante contatto con me.
Africa: Per quanto concerne il continente Africano, abbiamo deciso di concentrarci sul Rwanda e lavorare sul supporto alle madri adolescenti. Ragazze dai 13 ai 18 anni che sono rimaste in cinta a causa di stupri o di assenza di educazione sessuale e che ora si ritrovano ad essere minori con minori a loro carico, nessuna risorsa economica e scarsa o nessuna educazione. Lavoreremo per migliorare le loro condizioni. Dr. Ronald Kimuli, head of Human Advisor Project Africa è già operativo in questo senso e in costante contatto con me.
Afghanistan: In Afghanistan la situazione è disastrosa. Ci sono genitori costretti a drogare i figli per farli dormire. Non c’è cibo, non ci sono infrastrutture e in molti hanno perso la casa a seguito di disastri naturali. Per quanto il tema dell’educazione sia per noi centrale in un paese come l’Afghanistan, come si evince dal nostro documento programmatico, ci stiamo concentrando per ora sull’aiuto umanitario. Dr. Noorwali Khpalwak è operativo da Parigi e abbiamo una squadra in loco a Kabul in costante contatto con noi guidata dal Dr. Samiullah Ahmadzai.

Il prossimo rapporto riassuntivo sarà pubblicato presumibilmente alla fine del prossimo anno.
Cordialità Vivissime al lettore e forza di cuore a tutti. 

Dott. Gianpaolo Marcucci

Presidente dello “Human Advisor Project”

*Questo testo è da considerarsi una libera riflessione a scopo di studio e ricerca. Non è da considerarsi materiale scientifico, commerciale o divulgativo né rappresenta necessariamente il pensiero di Gianpaolo Marcucci o dello Human Advisor Project. Ogni considerazione o previsione è ritenuta valida solo fino al momento della pubblicazione di questo testo ovvero il 30 novembre 2022 alle ore 14:00 GMT+1 e non oltre e potrebbe cambiare anche totalmente in qualsiasi momento da allora. Le conclusioni riportate in esso sono state elaborate a seguito dell’ascolto, la lettura, lo studio e l’analisi di materiali scritti, audio, video e report di istituti specializzati quali: ISPI, Julius Bär, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Sole 24 ore, Il fatto Quotidiano. Né Gianpaolo Marcucci né lo Human Advisor Project è in alcun modo responsabile delle azioni che il lettore intraprenderà a seguito della lettura in qualsiasi campo. Per info aggiuntive: Legal Team Human Advisor Project

Author: Gianpaolo Marcucci

Italian Youth Deviance Intervention

Postato il di Gianpaolo

The Ministers of Internal Affairs and Justice, with Transcrime Research Center and Sacro Cuore University made a wonderful job in studying and reporting the presence and activity of baby gangs in Italy.

With the Scentific Committee of the Human Advisor Project we decide to activate a program of intervention about this phenomenon, working of what we elaborated could be the most important cause: Italian Young Generation is completely lost and not listened to, from years.

For that, our program aims to get in touch with young generations in difficult areas, mix with them, get to know them, listen to them (focusing on the North-East of Italy) and better understand the phenomenon and the possible intervention that need to be implemented, mostly about education but also about education to self-awareness, compassion, mindfulness and emotional intelligence, making them aware of the world they are creating for themselves and help them to face the uncertainty of this historic moment.

The program is not public because of safety reasons. Results will be published in the next two years.

Climate change on the threshold of the 2020s:Consequences and benefits of Covid-19

Postato il di ronkimu

Between saying and doing lies the sea, in this case an increasingly polluted sea. Forests burn for days, biodiversity is increasingly at risk, in some cities the air is so polluted and almost unbreathable: climate change is a reality now more relevant than ever.

It is not surprising, then, that climate change, environmental degradation and overexploitation of resources are some of the biggest problems facing the international community today of which society at large-especially younger generations-is becoming increasingly aware.

As early as 1997, with the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) laid the groundwork for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Kyoto mechanisms, parties were ranked according to emission levels, with a corresponding responsibility to reduce them by a given amount; thus, richer countries were given greater responsibility for reducing emissions than poorer countries (which is why, for example, the United States did not support the Protocol).

Despite broad support for the Protocol, global emissions over the past 20 years have grown rapidly, and climate change has remained a major international concern.

Average global temperatures have continued to rise, peaking between 2010 and 2019. The parallel increase in greenhouse gas emissions has contributed considerably to global warming, so much so that the European Earth Observation Program – Copernicus – has designated 2020 as the warmest year ever recorded in Europe.

On average, global temperature has increased by 0.94-1.03°C since the late 19th century, with potentially catastrophic long-term effects on the environment and climate. In order to curb this increase, the international community agreed – at COP21 – on the so-called Paris Agreement, whose aim is to keep global warming below 2°C.

Indeed, since the Paris Agreement places equal responsibilities on all parties, not only poorer countries are in a position where they have less room to develop their economies, but the asymmetries present in the distribution of wealth and political power are increasing. Moreover, because the global economic model is built on competition and growth, which are linked and translated into geopolitical power, it is unlikely that any country will adopt measures in the future that disproportionately damage its position on the world stage. However, despite these issues, the European Union has sought, and still seeks, to position itself as an international leader in issues of climate change resilience and sustainability, as well as to promote the importance of joint environmental action on the international stage and among the European population.

Although the official goal of global environmental policy has long been to limit global warming to below 2°C, a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the state of global warming – published in 2018 – indicated that average global temperatures have increased by about 1°C since the pre-industrial era and predicted that average global warming is likely to reach an increase of 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050. The onset of the pandemic crisis in 2020 was certainly a game changer; the temporary slowdown in global greenhouse gas emissions due to significantly reduced economic activity in the first half of the year has, in fact, allowed the Earth to “breathe,” having led to 19 percent reductions in daily emission levels compared to April 2019. This has benefited the reduction of climate change risks, however, it is presumed that this slowdown will be temporary. The environmental benefits of the global economic slowdown due to COVID-19, however, extend far beyond lower greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, there has also been a significant decline in commercial fishing operations as the instability of global supply chains has prompted a renewed focus on strengthening local supply chains to support community fishers and reduce food insecurity risks. This, in turn, has also had indirect impacts on carbon footprints.

A further feature of the global response to the pandemic has been the willingness of most governments to rely on the advice of doctors and experts; a rationale that many commentators have urged to apply to global responses to climate change as well, arguing that the threats of climate change are far more widespread and enduring.

Francesca Teresi

The psychological fallout of the war in Ukraine

Postato il di ronkimu

Life has changed in so many ways for us, the Ukrainian people. We have lost the many basic comforts of our lives and our houses, while our beliefs, our opinions, and our attitudes toward living have all changed dramatically. We are fearful of potential nuclear war, and the current war that could, if it continues to escalate, affect people around the world.

Hundreds of people live in the Kharkiv metro because of the war. Photo by David Peinado / Pexels

As an academic, I view the effects in multiple dimensions. Through personal research, I know the shock and uncertainty Ukrainians are facing; the changes they are experiencing in their psychological wellbeing that have come about from an uncertain existence. At the same time, my everyday life has evolved into something that doesn’t feel real. Immense traffic jams as people flee their homes, people clad in military gear and weapons walking on the streets, explosions and alarms urging us to take shelter from an imminent threat. And we don’t know when any of this will end.

A mental burden we all bear

The Ukrainian people have acted with an extraordinary resilience though. Voluntary organizations have formed quickly to help, some providing defense and patrolling neighborhoods, while others have set up mental health hotlines to provide people with much needed psychological support. Many of those volunteering have been misplaced  thousands of people who have been forced to leave their homes, their jobs, and their lives behind are offering to support millions of people just like them.

It’s hard for many of us to comprehend the immense psychological strength these efforts take. I spent time volunteering at the very beginning of this war, helping those fleeing their homes to find a place to go. On that day, our team met an estimated 35,000 refugees who all needed shelter. But our social infrastructure simply wasn’t built for such a crisis; the organizational skills simply didn’t and don’t exist. We are left with a situation of not being able to help people who are in dire need. Yes, we can provide food and clothes, but where can people go?

For those that do make it to a refugee shelter, life now consists of living in a shared space with others. Often these spaces are massively over-populated, some housing thousands of people. The smells, lack of oxygen, and external noises all present discomforts, while a lack of structure brings its own psychological burden. People now have no purpose. They simply wait for mealtimes while digesting information that further aggravates their stress during their free time.

Worse still, outdated stigmas get in the way of them receiving help. In Ukraine, when you offer psychological support, many people hear the prefix ‘psych’ and immediately shut down any avenues of discussion. They don’t want to be thought of as having ‘mental disorders’ or mentally ‘ill’. They simply will not accept the help you can offer them.

Diversification of reality

The shock of this war is not being felt by everyone in the same way. A phenomenon called ‘diversification of reality’ is currently at play, creating individual narratives to something that from the outside looks like it could only ever exist in one form.

Ukrainians living in war-affected areas of the country, for example, are experiencing something very different to those living in unaffected cities or towns. These different perspectives are more damaging to societal attitudes than you might think. Those who have lived under imminent threat will be dealing with extreme stress and potential post-traumatic stress disorder, while those who haven’t been directly affected will likely be dealing with less severe psychological distress.

Ultimately this means that when refugees from affected areas relocate and settle in unaffected areas, it is difficult for both parties to understand each other. A directly affected refugee may for example feel resentment toward the unaffected, while the unaffected will likely struggle to comprehend or empathize with the affected.

And this isn’t just between strangers: the same goes for families. Husbands or fathers who have been called up to fight will be dealing with entirely different scenarios and emotions to their loved ones. Their loved ones may be living in shelters which, as I described, may mean they are living in extreme discomfort. Men on the front line may also be feeling extreme distress but in a different way. When these family members meet again, their understanding of each other has forever been transformed and may never recover.

Societal division

With all this happening, you are also met with something that war very quickly creates: societal division. You are either an ally or an enemy, and many refugees who aren’t Ukrainian are met with a new-found patriotism from natives who see them as ‘outsiders’. This tension, combined with the fact that personal, financial, and social needs are already severely unmet for many refugees, leads to emotional burnout for everyone involved.

Societal division is further stoked by a curious means. Due to a lack of wanting to face reality, a willingness to close oneself off from the trauma of war, people turn toward any possible method of distraction. Currently, this tends to be television or social media.

With little else to do, people begin to consume this media in large quantities, allowing for a unique characteristic to blossom among society: a virtualization of expertise. As people consume more and more media related to the war, they begin to believe themselves to be experts on what is happening. This becomes a problem if their sources are biased to present a specific version of events. This leads to a variety of experts with a variety of different perspectives on the war, many of whom struggle to comprehend the perspectives of others, leading to societal tension and bitterness.

The will to carry on

You would think it would be easy for individuals to collapse under such a hefty psychological weight. But humans are strong. And I can tell you first hand that this particularly applies the proud people of Ukraine.

I have witnessed people arrive at a refugee shelter after an 18-hour journey on a packed train where they have had to stand for the entire time. The scenes many of them have witnessed and the basic comforts they have been denied are inconceivable to the rest of us. Even as I helped them with their bags, guided their children to a safe place, and reassured them that they were safe, my imagination could never fully understand their trauma. And yet, even in the face of the psychological scars they now undoubtedly bear, they continue to seek to survive.

Building bridges

Even with a fierce will to survive, the people of Ukraine need mental health support now more than ever. And that’s why a team of fellow psychologists and I are in the process of developing a method of allowing people to provide others with mental assurance. A kind of ‘horizontal diplomacy’ that lets people from around the world to act as a virtual shoulder to lean on for the people in Ukraine who have been affected by this war. Because together we can help each other, and together we can make a difference.

Dr Viktor Vus

Published with permission from https://www.talkingmentalhealth.com/

Afghanistan Needs Voice

Postato il di Gianpaolo

The international community’s silence on the humanitarian crisis, terrorist activities and human rights in Afghanistan is worrying. We’ve just receive report of many rights violated:

– Closure of schools for girls;

Although it has been almost a month since the start of the schools in Afghanistan, girls above the sixth class are still not allowed to go to school. A number of political parties, civil society groups and tribal councils in Kabul have called on the Taliban to reopen girls schools as soon as possible and not to allow girls’ schools in Afghanistan to remain closed. The political parties, civil society and tribal councils have issued a statement saying that girls education is red line of the people of Afghanistan and the doors of the schools should not remain closed for girls anymore. They also warned that closed schools for girls would force people to migrate, causing severe economic and political damage to the country.

– Two out of three children in Afghanistan do not have access to adequate food:

Business Standard publication wrote an article quoting international foundations about the fact that the raising hunger and poverty in Afghanistan have had a direct negative impact on the lives of children. Two out of three Afghan children do not have access to adequate food: The source said that the current situation is terrible and the families have been forced to sell their children or force them to do hard labor to get dome money for survival expenses. The International Children’s Fund, or Save the Children, also estimates that nearly five million Afghan children are starving. The agency also noted that the current drought in Afghanistan, political and economic conflicts and the suspension of international aid have affected services for children such as education, health and food security. According to various UN agencies, about 95 percent of Afghans do not have enough food, and children and women are the main culprits.

– Security and political crisis:

The wave of suicide attacks and bombings in the country has generated fear of Afghanistan falling into the hands of terrorist groups. There have been several deadly attacks in Kabul, Balkh and Kunduz in the past few days. A recent attack on civilians targeted a mosque in the Imam Sahib district of Kunduz province, killing more than 40 people and injuring more 50 people. Earlier a mosque in Mazar-e-Sharif and an education center in Kabul were drugged, killing and injuring dozens. The killings of Hazaras and Shiites are the latest wave of violence, and the militant groups currently fighting in Afghanistan are slowly spiraling out of control. Over the past 20 years, they have maintained close ties with al Qaeda, ISIS, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, the Pakistani Taliban, and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Theese groups sees opportunity of rebuild their ranks for West and Central Asia.

Afghanistan is once again at the center of jihadi extremism, The firing of 10 missiles by ISIS on Uzbekistan last week sends a message that the groups are trying to destabilize Afghanistan’s neighbors, which destroyed the geopolitical situation of the region. Economic stagnation, harsh sanctions, exclusion of women and girls from human rights, and the legal vacuum will once again turning Afghanistan into an exporter of terrorism. Recent attacks on civilian targets in Afghanistan have been condemned by many countries and political institutions. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Kabul (UNAMA), Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the Norwegian delegation to the United Nations, the United Arab Emirates and a number of other governments and international organizations expressed sorrow over the recent attacks, which killed and injured hundreds of civilians. But humanitarian aid and condemnation of incidents alone cannot solve the problem of Afghans, Humanitarian aid is good, it solves the urgent needs of the people, condemnation of incidents is also a moral generator of courage and hope.

But we must not forget that the security situation in Afghanistan, has a direct impact to the whole world, especially on the region. After the war in Ukraine, Afghanistan seems to have been overlooked by the international community, which will have dire consequences in the future. The international community must not allow this country to once again become a breeding ground for terrorism and terrorist groups to once again become a source of profit for pro-government. It is necessary to find permanent solutions to help Afghanistan achieve sustainable economic growth and save the lives of millions of people. It is needed a structure to connect Afghanistan to the world and establish an agreement between Afghanistan and the U.N. about human rights, women rights, freedom of speech and all the values a democracy need, to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

Noorwali Khpalwak, Afghan Journalist, Human Advisor Afghanistan

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