A research project by our president, Gianpaolo Marcucci, that anyone can read, check and follow over time.
The Human Advisor Project exists to raise awareness. Most of the time that means education for kids, mindfulness, emotional intelligence, help where it is needed. But awareness has another dimension: understanding the world we are all living in, and the forces that are quietly deciding what the next decades will look like.
That is what The New World is about.
What it is
The New World is an independent, public research project by Gianpaolo Marcucci, president of the Human Advisor Project. It asks a simple question with a complicated answer: how are power, technology and capital reshaping the world order, and how can we tell whether our reading of it is right?
The starting point is Ray Dalio’s 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which reads the rise and decline of great powers through debt, productivity, innovation, inequality and conflict. The project extends that framework in two ways. It separates the different kinds of power — monetary, industrial, technological, energy, military — instead of treating them as one block, and it adds the two variables that were only beginning to appear in 2021: artificial intelligence and digital finance. Then it applies Philip Tetlock’s forecasting discipline: every claim is broken down into questions that can be checked, given a probability, written down before the fact and revised when the evidence changes.
The result is five scenarios for 2026–2035, each with an explicit weight, and a method for updating those weights one quarter at a time without rewriting the past.
Three ways in
The project is published in English and Italian and is organised in three parts, so you can go as deep as you want.
The report — DALIO 2.0. Forty-one pages on AI, multipolarity, the dollar, Bitcoin and digital finance, Europe and Italy, with more than fifty documented sources (IMF, ECB, OECD, IEA, Stanford AI Index, ISTAT, Eurostat) and interactive dashboards. → https://gmarcucci.com/il-nuovo-mondo/en/dalio_2_0.html
The overview. The same model told in eleven visual chapters: the poles of power, the evidence, the double effect of AI, the five scenarios and the matrix that connects them. It can be read in a few minutes or presented on screen. → https://gmarcucci.com/il-nuovo-mondo/en/dalio_2_0_presentation.html
The Scenario Observatory. The living part of the project. It shows how the five scenarios have moved since 2022, which signals shift their weight, and keeps a quarterly journal in which every revision is recorded with what was expected, what happened and what was missed. Three concrete forecasts — on global growth, the dollar’s reserve share and AI adoption in European companies — are already registered with dates and verification rules, so that in a few months anyone can check whether they were right. → https://gmarcucci.com/il-nuovo-mondo/en/scenario_observatory.html
Landing page (English): https://gmarcucci.com/il-nuovo-mondo/en/ Versione italiana: https://gmarcucci.com/il-nuovo-mondo/
Why it matters to HAP
We often say that an aware adult is someone who can hold uncertainty without panic and without dogma. A forecast that writes down its own probabilities and then goes back to see where it was wrong is a small exercise in exactly that. It is also a way of taking a subject usually reserved for banks and think tanks — the shape of the world order — and putting it in the open, with the sources on the table, for students, teachers and curious readers.
The project will be updated every quarter and becomes our main place for regular publishing. This blog will only carry occasional news about specific HAP projects, with no fixed schedule.
If you teach, write or simply want to understand the decade ahead, follow The New World and use it freely.
The New World is an independent research publication for information and educational purposes. It is not financial advice, a personalised recommendation or an offer of financial instruments, and it is separate from any regulated activity of its author.
