Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly advancing technology that is set to have a significant impact on the job market in the next 50 years. While some jobs may become automated, others will continue to require human skills and expertise.
Jobs that are likely to be impacted by AI in the next 50 years include:
Manufacturing roles, such as assembly line work, where repetitive tasks can be easily automated.
Transportation and logistics, where AI-powered systems can optimize routes and manage fleet operations.
Data analysis and decision-making roles, such as financial analysis, accounting, and certain aspects of healthcare.
Customer service and call center jobs, where AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants can handle routine interactions.
Jobs that involve repetitive tasks, such as data entry and document processing.
On the other hand, jobs that require certain human skills and expertise are less likely to be impacted by AI in the next 50 years:
Jobs that involve human interaction and empathy, such as teaching, social work, and therapy.
Jobs that require creativity and problem-solving, such as design, innovation, and research.
Jobs that require complex decision making and judgement, such as managers, executives, and leaders.
Jobs that require a deep understanding of human emotions and social dynamics, such as therapists, counselors, and sociologists.
It is also worth mentioning that AI will create new job opportunities, particularly in the field of AI development, implementation, maintenance, and governance. As AI becomes more prevalent across various industries, there will be a growing demand for professionals with expertise in AI-related fields.
It is important to note that AI will not necessarily lead to widespread unemployment. Instead, it is likely to result in a shift in the types of jobs available, with some becoming automated while others will continue to require human skills and expertise. As such, individuals and organizations must adapt to these changes and develop the necessary skills to succeed in the new job market.
In Peru, there are 48 native languages and approximately 28,000 bilingual schools, within the modalities of regular basic school, alternative basic school and special basic school, serving more than 1,200,000 students nationwide, at the pre-school, primary and secondary levels.
In order to continue with the proposals for progress in rural bilingual education policies, within the Peruvian Ministry of Education there is the Directorate of Alternative Basic Education, Intercultural Bilingual Education and Educational Services in Rural Areas, which, through its professionals, is responsible for designing and proposing improvements in education in rural areas, through proposals for educational improvements and training for bilingual teachers, in order to ensure the education of thousands of students in an inclusive manner and to avoid school dropout.
However, despite continuous efforts, the lack of budget and bilingual teachers only widens the inequality gap. Furthermore, the ongoing political crisis in the country not only generates an atmosphere of uncertainty in general, but it also stops further proposals and investments in order to meet the main demands of students from indigenous peoples.
Rural bilingual schools are not only spaces for the dissemination of academic knowledge, but also of ancestral knowledge. Peruvian indigenous peoples are spaces in which there is a living culture of ancestral knowledge, which is passed down from generation to generation. Ensuring bilingual education through teacher training, funding, educational policies, but above all respect for ancestors who have resisted through the centuries, would contribute to reducing the inequality and indifference with which these peoples have been living. The current political situation, and the current violation of human rights in the country, especially in sectors where there is a high presence of indigenous people (the Department of Puno is the most affected, with citizens murdered during the demonstrations against the current president and is home to the Quechua and Aymara population), only affects a student community that is faced with indifference, lack of basic services to study and lack of quality education; However, it also empowers students who are aware that they are the voice of the future and seek to be heard in order to feel included in a country that is highly centralised in the capital Lima.
The challenges facing the Peruvian state in order to ensure the development of students from indigenous peoples is to continue to coordinate with various institutions such as the Ministry of Culture (which has a directorate that promotes policies for the protection of indigenous peoples), civil associations that have a professional staff to meet the main demand for social projects, curators who would help students to continue generating spaces for dialogue and ancestral knowledge, enhancing through education everything they have learned through their community sages; But above all, the Ministry of Education must ensure educational policies that ensure that students can receive the same quality education that students who have Spanish as their mother tongue receive.
The 48 native languages resist in a country that seems to be more and more indifferent every day and whose colonial construction still persists. However, what Peruvian society does not count on is a large native student community, who through meetings try to make their own demands visible, try to denounce open secrets that are like assassinations of community leaders defending their territories, as well as systematic violence that they constantly experience. Rural schools are therefore not only spaces of knowledge, but also of resistance, in the face of a country that looks at them with indifference.
On 7 December, the former president of Peru, Pedro Castillo, was removed from office by the Peruvian Congress after a failed coup attempt. This event sparked a series of nationwide protests, which have so far left more than 25 people dead, including minors. But what are the Peruvian people demanding?
The main demand is the resignation of the current president Dina Boluarte, who has so far repressed the protesters by giving freedom to the Peruvian army and the police to disperse any demonstration against the government using any measure of force, which is anti-democratic. It also calls for the elections to be brought forward to the current year (it has been approved to be brought forward to April 2024), the dissolution of the congress and the creation of a new constituent assembly.
Last weekend, during protests in the city of Juliaca, capital of the department of Puno, a series of police abuses were reported, including an injured reporter, who said the following:
“At around 3 o’clock in the afternoon I was covering the protests, where I was recording (photographing) demonstrators and the police. I was on the wall of that bypass (level crossing), on the edge, to be able to see the confrontation between the police and the demonstrators. At that moment I was sending photos, I stopped to look at my mobile phone and I saw that I was hit by a blunt object. When it hit me, my leg went numb and then it started to bleed through my trousers. I pull up my trousers and I see a hole (at that moment), I was calm and also scared. When the demonstrators noticed it, some said it was buckshot, others said it was a bullet, but I didn’t really know what it was. They carried me to a little market ten steps away and there they began to treat me with bandages, clean the blood and put a tourniquet on my leg.”
The journalist received police threats, including death threats. This is a serious violation of human rights and an aggression towards the independent media, who in view of the lack of biased reporting by the mainstream media, report by getting involved in the protests and taking pictures of the various acts of violence that are taking place. However, this is only one of several events that have been recorded.
Demonstrations at the national level show human rights violations in the form of arbitrary arrests, use of tear gas, use of firearms by the police. Some of the deaths recorded during Dina Boluarte’s first month in office have been civilians who have been trying to help injured demonstrators. The constant repression has left children, adults and elderly people dead, without leaving dialogue open.
Protesting is a right. No human being should be violated for raising his or her voice against a regime. What is happening in Peru is a dictatorship: a president who uses force to silence the voice of the people, no space for dialogue to reach an agreement with the citizens, police who abuse their power, media that transmit messages of hatred towards the demonstrators.
Social inequality in Peru has always been latent. Today the forgotten voices are making themselves heard in the midst of a centralist, unequal and classist country. Infringing their rights through aggression and death only further widens the existing inequality gap. It is necessary to raise our voices to ensure that the right to protest is respected, however, through a dictatorship it is unfortunate to know that the only thing that is guaranteed is repression and death.
Reflections on Economy, Market and Society for the year to come*
The Human Advisor Project proposes some reflections on the year that is about to come. It is recommended to read the disclaimer note at the end of the text. The report is divided into short and summary paragraphs, please request in the comment section if you would like to deepen one or more of the topics below in future reports and articles. Let’s get started.
The evolution of Globalization
The era of the West as the center of the world is over. The new trend now, in the West, will be to consider the world as a two-pole world with a democratic bloc and an authoritarian bloc. However, this seems to be an overly simplistic and naive definition. The rise of alternative powers to the two US-CHINA blocs seems to be foreshadowing an evolution in the direction of a multipolar world within which exchanges of resources and services will continue both between blocs and within the blocs. The market will suffer from the moment of tension caused by this change, but in the long run it will benefit. Nationalist and populist movements will be able to arise and proliferate temporarily in the initial phase of this process, but clashing with the economic needs of global market union that will make them mature and/or lose ground in the medium and long term. It is also noteworthy that we are preparing to reach 10 billion people on planet earth in a few years, with all the challenges in terms of food supply, population density, migration, security, energy and pollution that this will bring.
Climate change and social justice
From Cop27, some main scenarios have emerged: There is no agreement at global level on how to reduce emissions. Europe is a leader in regulation with the US, which could supplant it as early as this year. At the moment, the focus seems to be on the rebalancing of social justice between developed and emerging countries, to the extent that the west will have to (would they already have to?) create and/or support the emerging countries in the process of adaptation to current climatic conditions (provoked mainly by the developed countries). A Cop28 more focused on decarbonization is expected next year.
War in Ukraine as a regional and non-world war
The war in Ukraine that seemed to result in a world-nuclear-war in the second quarter of 2022, now appears to have stabilized as a ‘regional’ war, only European. The consequences on the rest of the world are visible but not as much as if it had broken out a few decades ago. This makes us reflect on the role of an increasingly less central Europe at world level, that is, more and more a single subject among a multitude of subjects, political, economic and military, within a multipolar world. This war is to be considered, anyway, as a War between USA and China, but the conflict should not lead to a Nuclear world (even tough it could be announced as possible to destabilized political order in the Euro-Asiatic continent).
The future monetary war
Strong dollar, weak euro, and other raising currencies. The Chinese digital currency is in the pipeline, which wants to become the main exchange currency of the BRICS countries (which would also like to incorporate Dubai). All this monetary ferment seems to foreshadow a future currency war. Among these currencies, one certainly represents the most ambiguous but interesting: Bitcoin. Much down from last year’s highs but very high compared to its pre-covid levels, with its strong assumptions and projections still very promising in the long term, despite the expensive and polluting mining issue. A war between Fiat currencies and Bitcoin can become reality but for now it prevails the Central Banks will of just regulating the crypto sector and set the ground for a mutual existence in future of both systems.
Inflation and Central Banks
Inflation (to 70% due to the increase in the cost of food and energy due to the war in Ukraine) is the big issue of these last months. The loss of purchasing power of households is beginning to be felt and, while in America there is already talk of the ‘beginning of the end of inflation’, in Europe, although it seems that the peak has reached, high inflation will still seem to remain present throughout 2023, thus impacting the cost of living and eroding uninvested savings or money on the current accounts of savers. Central banks are running for cover, in fact, the FED and the ECB seem to want to continue to use the hard fist, raising interest rates on the money lent to the banks, which consequently raise mortgage rates, thus triggering a difficult situation for businesses and citizens. At the moment, inflation forecasts are not rosy for Europe. To run for cover, many think of lightening their liquidity by investing in the rising bond market or buying Real Estate, mainly in the ‘Logistics’ and Private Luxury sector (a big “No” for the commercial real estate sector in sharp devaluation from the pandemic).
Bear market
It is given by everyone as certain a more contained growth in the two-year period 2023/2024 with a “bear” or dormant market, or even in a slight decline in Europe (recession) and very light or absent in the USA. This would represent a significant disadvantage for investors who opened their market positions in 2021 who are now losing double-digit percentages, but a considerable advantage for those who want to open them (especially in solid stock) positions in the next year by buying on weaknesses. Bear market could still be a reality in 2024.
Luxury
The crisis, as always, is not felt by the richest groups of society, which are becoming richer and richer and who, even driven by inflation, tend less and less to take liquidity on account and prefer to spend, and sometimes even invest, in the luxury sector. Although down from last year due to the war in Ukraine, buying a Rolex still means doubling if not tripling your investment at the exact time of purchase. In fact, a Steel Daytona purchased today at 12K€ from that elité that has access to the waiting lists of retailers, can be exchanged in the gray watch market for about 25/30K€. Watches thus become no longer tools but jewels: Swiss watchmaking houses are increasingly shifting towards the use of precious metals and sought-after mechanisms, raising customer entry-level prices to 20/30 thousand euros (comes to 7/8 a few years ago). This is also because of the total absorption of the market for ‘technical’ or ‘instrumental’ watches by the tech industry. Suffice it to say that Apple alone sells more watches per year comparing to the entire Swiss industry put together. Apple has recently come out with the first model of diving and hiking smartwatch. It is thus expected a gradual distancing of the Swiss industry from the ‘stainless steel’ to the luxury good in gold and diamonds or platinum (and an overvaluation of the Vintage given the poor availability of some models).
Layoffs, BigTech Crisis and Labour Market
However, very few are those who can afford to buy luxury goods, especially given the drastic increase in layoffs in the world due to the fear of recession and the bear market. In fact, the bear market bogeyman seems to have pushed the American technological giants to fire tens of thousands of workers. However, in the opinion of many analysts, this is not a strange fact, but a healthy and natural evolution of such companies that evidently, after a period of unicorn traction and over-price on the stock market, due to their boom and post-pandemic, begin to become more mature, solid, well-managed and therefore promising companies in the long term (and less volatile). Clearly this is devastating from the point of view of the workers concerned, but only if you think of the world of work in the ‘ancient’ way or the way in which it is necessary to work for a living. As automation is constantly advancing, the future scenario that is now facing with certainty is that of increasingly automated work and the creation of alternative subsidy tools to work such as universal income or UBI (Universal Basic Income). In this sense, Germany has begun working on the creation of a citizenship income to cover the loss of jobs of German citizens. Jobs that probably, in many cases, will not be get back. In contrast to Italy, which abolishes its already precarious citizenship income, but more for ideological reasons it seems and without putting tangible alternatives at the moment. So strong social and humanitarian crises are expected even in the West due to the reticence of the legislators to regularize this practice of “monthly non-repayable survival allowance” by the state to every citizen who will be (in academic circles and among the elité of American entrepreneurs it has already been mentioned for years as the only solution to unemployment from automation) the formula.
Millennials and GenerationZ
Two generations face the world of work. Millennials and GenerazioneZ are the workers/citizens/leaders-politicians/entrepreneurs/investors of the present/future. In order to understand how these generations will approach business, economic, financial, social and political life, we must first consider what we know about them. Of the millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) we know that they are the most educated generation ever. This on the one hand pushes them to think they ‘already know everything’ even when in reality this is not the case. On the other hand, it pushes them to want to distinguish themselves, to want to emerge and to increase their wealth, cognitive, experiential, consumerist and financial. They are also very politicised in different countries of the world, but that is not necessarily why they are recognised in mainstream politics. Of GenerationZ (born between 1997 and 2012) what we know is that they are babies born with the ‘screen in the cradle’. They have never seen a program on television or read a paper newspaper and everything for them exists more in the virtual than in the real one, in the present extemporaneous rather than in the planned future. Social interactions are predominantly mediated between them by the technological medium, via chat (phone calls are considered an invasion). Their private sphere is very wide and the level of comfort they are used to is very high. Their attention lasts no more than 8 seconds and the enjoyment of one content for them is difficult to go beyond 15 minutes. GenerationZ is likely to be renamed CyberGeneration. The next one will continue that trend.
Metaverse
In this perspective, the space for the birth of a new world is foreshadowed, first only imagined in science fiction novels and today already partial reality: the Metaverse. Meta, whose stock is down sharply today due to non-return spending policy, is the most interesting company to look at in this regard. It is in fact creating the platform and the device (i.e. software and hardware) through which all internet users in a medium and long-term time horizon will interface with the network for activities such as working, communicating, socializing, having fun, enjoying entertainment content (including those for adults), playing sports and much more. All from home, in your own comfort zone and without invading your private sphere, in line with the needs of GenerazioneZ. Other companies are chasing Meta in both America and China. Possible mergers are on the horizon in my opinion, so you will have to be careful, but investing in this sector (wide and not mono-company), over a time horizon of 10/15 years, could give very high returns.
Market prospects: crisis/opportunity
In addition to the metaverse and cryptocurrencies today at attractive prices, there are other interesting prospects in the market in my opinion: EM Asia: The emerging countries of Asia and the Pacific are, according to almost all reports, the driving economies of the coming years followed by Nigeria (still risky and too immature politically). Health care (home diagnosis and oncology immunology): In the health sector, there are excellent potential results in the medium to long term with regard to DIY diagnostics (home devices connected to the smartphone) and oncology immunology (cancer vaccines). Pet: A close eye should be given to the sector that concerns pets and everything that revolves around them. In sharp rise and with great future potential. Bond: Fixed coupon bonds are back. Certainly the most cautious investors will make use of it. Beware, however, to the fact that compared to the Bonds of a few years ago, these have some little more risks. It is therefore better to be cautious and always diversify.
The commitment of the HAP in the world: Ukraine Africa and Afghanistan
Our commitment abroad remains strong on three fronts: Ukraine: The situation of internal refugees, that is, the people who have been left homeless for the war, is very serious. The most important thing now is for us to intervene not only on a psychological but also socio-economic level. The people, as had been predicted by our report sent to President Draghi last February, have suffered devastating damage on all levels. It is necessary at this time to rehabilitate them psychologically but also to reintegrate them from a social and work point of view. Innovative poles must be created scattered throughout western Ukraine (it is possible that for a period there will be two Ukraines) where IDPs (internal disposable person) can start from scratch in safety and therefore live, work and socialize. Our head of Ukraine Emergency Dr. Viktor Vus now in Kiev is already on the front line on this front and in constant contact with me. Africa: As far as the African continent is concerned, we have decided to focus on Rwanda and work on supporting adolescent mothers. Girls aged 13 to 18 who got pregnant due to rape or absence of sex education and who now find themselves being minors with minors dependent on them, no economic resources and no education. We will work to improve their conditions. Dr. Ronald Kimuli, head of Human Advisor Project Africa is already operational in this regard and in constant contact with me. Afghanistan: The situation in Afghanistan is disastrous. There are parents forced to drug their children to make them sleep. There is no food, there is no infrastructure and many have lost their homes as a result of natural disasters. As much as the issue of education is central to us in a country like Afghanistan, as can be seen from our policy paper, we are now focusing first on humanitarian aid. Dr. Noorwali Khpalwak is operating from Paris and we have a team on site in Kabul in constant contact with us led by Dr. Samiullah Ahmadzai.
The next summary report will presumably be published at the end of next year.
Dott. Gianpaolo Marcucci
President of the “Human Advisor Project”
*This text is to be considered a free reflection for study and research purposes. It is not to be considered scientific, commercial or informative material nor does it necessarily represent the thought of Gianpaolo Marcucci or the Human Advisor Project. Any consideration or forecast is considered valid only until the time of publication of this text i.e. November 30, 2022 at 14:00 GMT+1 and no later and may also change completely at any time thereafter. The conclusions reported in it were elaborated following studies and analysis of written, audio, video materials and reports from specialized institutes such as: CIFS, ISPI, Julius Bär, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Sole 24 ore, Il fatto Quotidiano. Neither Gianpaolo Marcucci nor the Human Advisor Project is in any way responsible for the actions the reader will take as a result of reading this document. For additional info: Legal Team Human Advisor Project
Here we present our Human Advisor Stories, the stories of those people we choose to represent our spirit in their being excellence in their field around the world. Science, Human Rights, Art, Culture, Politics, Religion, All the sphere of the Human Being is admitted. To share your story you can send a request here: humanadvisorproject@gmail.com.
For 2023 we have chosen Naelia (Eliana Antonia Tumminelli) a music artist who brings with here a message of peace.
Compositrice colorata, infanzia nel giardino degli aranci, dove nascono i fiori, e adolescenza a San Lorenzo dove hanno trasformato i palazzi in cenere, faremo rinascere i fiori in questo inverno… Di questi tempi è difficile usare le parole e il coraggio, ma mi sono svegliata con una fitta nel petto e ho scritto questo brano. Spero che la genuinità dei bambini possa essere coscienza dei ”grandi”.
Eliana Tumminelli, aka NaElia, singer-songwriter, dancer and performer, was born in Catania on 20-06-1989. As a child she takes her bags and moves from her land to Rome to study and cultivate her passion for dance, music and art. Eclectic his artistic training, from theater, to music, to dance, graduated from the National Academy of Dance in Rome.
On July 1, 2004 she was awarded the International Professionalism Prize “Rocca D’Oro di Serrone”, as a young talent, receiving the sculpture by Ambrosetti.
In 2008 she self-produced her first album-promo È Senza Senso
Already among the six finalists, of which only three have access, to participate in the RAI (National Italian Television) Xfactor 4^ TV Talent show, Magnolia production, 80,000 presences.
The Ministers of Internal Affairs and Justice, with Transcrime Research Center and Sacro Cuore University made a wonderful job in studying and reporting the presence and activity of baby gangs in Italy.
With the Scentific Committee of the Human Advisor Project we decide to activate a program of intervention about this phenomenon, working of what we elaborated could be the most important cause: Italian Young Generation is completely lost and not listened to, from years.
For that, our program aims to get in touch with young generations in difficult areas, mix with them, get to know them, listen to them (focusing on the North-East of Italy) and better understand the phenomenon and the possible intervention that need to be implemented, mostly about education but also about education to self-awareness, compassion, mindfulness and emotional intelligence, making them aware of the world they are creating for themselves and help them to face the uncertainty of this historic moment.
The program is not public because of safety reasons. Results will be published in the next two years.
The “Mindful Police and Military Forces Program“ consists in teaching Mindfulness and Emotional Intelligence to our great police and military forces all over the world.
Our program is aimed to:
Increase officers efficiency
Increase officers ability to do the right action in critical situations
Increase “choice-space” between stimulus and response
Decrease judgmental biases in decision making process
Significantly reduce stress, anxiety and depression generator factors
Significantly improve sleep quantity and quality and the capacity to sleep when needed
Develop the skills officers need to de-escalate volatile situations
Improve community relations both in peace and in war zone
Significally increase ability of negotiating in hard situations
Butwhy, in a moment like that, would Military, Police, Nurses, Fire-Fighters and First Responders needs to quickly develop high levels of “Mindfulness and Emotional Intelligence” Skills?
Try to question yourself about this 3 simple scenarios:
When does an accident take place? When you are in a controlled situation, lab or drill situation, with everything you need to solve the criticality that the accident causes ready to be used…or when you are on duty, in the field, or at home with your family or even alone? And are you aware of all the chance you have in any situation to experience that accident, and of what to do to cope with it?
When does an injury or a physical breakdown takes place? When you are comfortable sitting or laying in a Hospital full of medics and nurses ready to care about you…or else when you are on duty, in the field, or at home with your family or even alone? And are you aware of all the chance you have in any situation to experience that injury, and of what to do to cope with it?
When does a mental breakdown take place? When you are comfortable sitting over laying in a Mental Health Facility surrounded by psychologists and psychiatrists ready to intervene and help you…or else when you are on duty, in the field, or at home with your family or even alone? And are you aware of all the chance you have in any situation to experience that breakdown, and of what to do to cope with it?
And do you know that if you are not aware of the bias of your mind, those bias can easily overcome you and make you become an “always on the edge” person that, like a time-bomb, can implode/explode and lose all productivity at once, all of a sudden, maybe right in the middle of an important task or mission?
The 3 scenarios that I reported before represent 3 different kind of skills that you may lack of: – Awareness of the environment – Awareness of the body (yours and others) – Awareness of the mind (yours and others)
In a moment of uncertainty such as this one, it is impossible to simply “stick on the plan” or “follow the protocol” because many times there are no plans and many times the protocol is only theoretical.
What is needed is a direct connection with what happens in the very moment things happen, and that can only be given by strong “awareness skills”.
Awareness and Mindfulness are synonyms. And as you know, since you are human, emotions can and will get in the way between you and your capacity to discern which is the best option.
From that, our programs are about both Mindfulness and Emotional Intelligence.
Only a Mindful And Emotional Intelligent Mind can cope with any situation without getting involve with it and do always the best possible action. During an accident, in first aid emergency, in war or in quickly-escalating police operations, a Mindful and Emotionally intelligent mind can always act in the best way
All our works are supported by solid scientific studies. We leave some scientific notes about our program, useful for the reader:
The studies examined evidenced that police officers who went through mindfulness training experienced less depression in their first year of service and also “significant improvement in self-reported mindfulness, resilience, police and perceived stress, burnout, emotional intelligence, difficulties with emotion regulation, mental health, physical health, anger, fatigue, and sleep disturbance.” (Christopher 2016,2018).
In a recent article about a very interesting study conducted by the University of Wisconsin emerged that:
“Mindfulness training led to significant reductions in psychological distress and mental health symptoms, consistent with previous RCTs demonstrating reduced anxiety and depression symptoms (Trombka et al., 2021), burnout and perceived stress (Christopher et al., 2018), and negative affect (Krick and Felfe, 2019). We provide the first evidence of reduced PTSD symptoms in an RCT of mindfulness training for police officers, consistent with findings from an earlier single-arm pilot study (Grupe et al., 2021a). This result is notable given high exposure to direct and vicarious trauma in policing, and the serious and potentially deadly consequences of unmitigated trauma exposure for police officers (Syed et al., 2020) and members of the public (Chemtob et al., 1997; Weiss et al., 2012). We also observed a modest improvement in sleep quality with mindfulness training that was significant at 3-month follow-up (see also Christopher et al., 2018). Improved sleep may benefit both police officer health and community well-being. For example, North American police officers who screened positive for sleep disorders (40% of the sample) not only had increased rates of diabetes, heart disease, and depression, but were more likely to express anger at work, fall asleep while driving, and incur citizen complaints (Rajaratnam et al., 2011). Mindfulness training was associated with a reduction in the CAR at 3-month follow-up, consistent with results from a previous RCT in police officers (Christopher et al., 2018). Although the CAR is generally thought of as an adaptive anticipatory response to prepare for the upcoming day (Powell and Schlotz, 2012), exaggerated responses are associated with excessive worry, burnout, and depression (Schlotz et al., 2004;” (Grupe &Co 2021)
Furthermore, is directly Officer Richard Goerling, a police lieutenant is Hillsboro, Oregon, who works with fellow police officers to increase their well-being through mindfulness, who says in a recent interview that often officers:
“Instead of understanding the impacts of stress, anger, or fear, [are forced by habit to] try to tamp down those emotions or ignore them, which keeps them from understanding the effect of emotion on performance “It’s classic compartmentalizing, saying, ‘I don’t let my emotions get in the way,’” says Goerling. “Yeah, right. But what happens if those emotions spike up out of the little box and get in the way, creating problems in the encounter with others?” (Suttie 2016).
And he added about mindfulness in critical situations that:
“Mindfulness opens up the space in which we make decisions—we’re not so linearly focused or so stressed because we are under threat,” he says. “We may still be under threat, but because I’m regulating my stress response and my emotions—anger, fear, and ego, which is a huge problem in our culture—I’m more aware of my options.”
Mindfulness and emotional intelligence are now crucial instruments for police officers all over the world and we find very important to present to our Italian Forces the opportunity to have those kind of abilities in their set of skills.
Primary References
– Christopher, M.S., Goerling, R.J., Rogers, B.S. et al. A Pilot Study Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Mindfulness-Based Intervention on Cortisol Awakening Response and Health Outcomes among Law Enforcement Officers. J Police Crim Psych 31, 15–28 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-015-9161-x
– Christopher MS, Hunsinger M, Goerling LRJ, Bowen S, Rogers BS, Gross CR, Dapolonia E, Pruessner JC. Mindfulness-based resilience training to reduce health risk, stress reactivity, and aggression among law enforcement officers: A feasibility and preliminary efficacy trial. Psychiatry Res. 2018 Jun;264:104-115. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2018.03.059. Epub 2018 Mar 23.
– Daniel W. Grupe1, Jonah L. Stoller, Carmen Alonso, Chad McGehee, Chris Smith, Jeanette A. Mumford, Melissa A. Rosenkranz and Richard J. Davidson (2021). The Impact of Mindfulness Training on Police Officer Stress, Mental Health, and Salivary Cortisol Levels
Clinical Trial published: 03 September 2021 doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.720753
– Jill Suttie, Psy.D, How Mindfulness Is Changing Law Enforcement
Meditation is helping police officers to de-escalate volatile situations, improve community relations—and improve their own well-being, MAY 18, 2016: on https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/
Other References
– Andersen, J. P., and Gustafsberg, H. (2016). A training method to improve police use of force decision making: a randomized controlled trial. SAGE Open 6, 1–13. doi: 10.1177/2158244016638708
– Ballenger, J. F., Best, S. R., Metzler, T. J., Wasserman, D. A., Mohr, D. C., Liberman, A., et al. (2011). Patterns and predictors of alcohol use in male and female urban police officers. Am. J. Addict. 20, 21–29. doi: 10.1111/j. 1521-0391.2010.00092.x
– Black, D. S., and Slavich, G. M. (2016). Mindfulness meditation and the immune system: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1373, 13–24. doi: 10.1111/nyas.12998
– Browning, C. R., Tarrence, J., LaPlant, E., Boettner, B., Schmeer, K. K., Calder, C. A., et al. (2021). Exposure to police-related deaths and physiological stress among urban black youth. Psychoneuroendocrinology 125:104884. doi: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2020.104884
– Burke, K. C. (2020). Democratic policing and officer well-being. Front. Psychol. 11:874. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00874
– Buysse, D. J., Reynolds, C. F., Monk, T. H., Berman, S. R., and Kupfer, D. J. (1989). The Pittsburgh sleep quality index: a new instrument for psychiatric practice and research. Psychiatry Res. 28, 193–213. doi: 10.1016/0165-1781(89)90047-4
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After two years of pandemic, Bill Gates delivers a book that in about three hundred pages can serve as both a warning and a handbook for the future. How to prevent the next pandemic, published on 3 May by the Allen Lane publishing house, has been the talk of the town since its release. The Coronavirus pandemic, in fact, has not yet died out and continues to plague governments around the world with its social, political, health and economic implications, but Mr. Gates is already looking to the future, trying to find an answer to the existential question that also gives this book its title ‘How can we prevent the next pandemic?
The Microsoft founder is firmly convinced – and personally, after reading his book, I find myself agreeing with him – that by learning from the current pandemic and implementing a series of strategies for the future, we can avoid the outbreak of a global health crisis like the one caused by Covid-19.
Based on the shared views of the world’s leading experts and his own experience fighting deadly diseases through the Gates Foundation, in How to prevent the next pandemic Bill Gates clearly and convincingly sets out the importance of being better prepared for the spread of new viruses.
The book consists of nine chapters plus an Introduction and an Afterword, the core of which revolves around the idea that while epidemics are inevitable, pandemics are optional. The world, therefore, in Gates’ thinking should not live in fear of the next pandemic, but should make the right investments for the benefit of all, with a view to making Covid-19 the last pandemic ever.
As many will recall, Bill and Melinda Gates have been committed to fighting the virus from the earliest days, collaborating with experts inside and outside the Gates Foundation who have been fighting infectious diseases for decades. This commitment inevitably led Mr. Gates to reflect on many factors in the pandemic response that could have been faster and more efficient.
Starting with the fact that respiratory viruses, including influenza and coronaviruses, are particularly dangerous because they spread very quickly, Bill Gates explains that the likelihood of a pandemic striking the world is steadily increasing; partly because human beings with urbanisation are encroaching on countless natural habitats and, as a result, interacting with animals more often, creating the conditions that allow a disease to pass from animal to human. In addition to this, another key point to consider is the lack of technical preparedness that all countries around the world have generally shown in responding to the virus. Back in 2015, during a speech at the TED conference entitled “The next epidemic? We’re not ready”, Gates had emphasised the importance of planning for all kinds of scenarios – from vaccine research to the training of health workers – to prevent the outbreak of increasingly dangerous viruses. Reflecting this importance, How to Prevent the Next Pandemic sets out how governments, scientists, companies and individuals can build a system capable of containing the inevitable outbreaks so that they do not turn into pandemics. Specifically, each chapter of the book explains a different step to take in order to be ready, and together, all these steps form a plan to eliminate future pandemics and reduce the likelihood that society will have to go through another Covid-19.
The first chapter traces the importance of learning from the pandemic caused by Covid-19. The starting point is swift action. It is no coincidence that many of the countries that experienced low excess mortality – Australia, Vietnam, New Zealand, South Korea – at the start of the pandemic quickly tested a large portion of the population, abruptly isolated individuals who tested positive and those who had been exposed to the virus, and put in place a plan to track, monitor, and manage cases that crossed their borders. Of course, Gates explains, just as some countries show us what to do and how to act, others show us the opposite. Not everyone did the right thing. Some people refused to wear a mask or vaccinate. Some politicians have denied the seriousness of the disease and avoided implementing the necessary closures to stop the spread of the virus.
Another fundamental point, repeatedly emphasised by the author, is that investing in innovation today will pay off in the future. In this regard, in the second chapter Gates emphasises the importance of putting in place a global body of experts whose task is to study how to respond to diseases that could kill thousands of people. Simply put, the world has never before invested in the mechanisms needed to prevent future pandemics and now is the time to do so.
Today, there are many organisations working to respond to pandemics, the best known being the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) which does heroic work but does not have the personnel, funds or global mandate to deal with any threat.
What Bill Gates therefore advocates is the creation of a permanent organisation of experts, fully paid and prepared to organise, at any time, a coordinated response to any dangerous outbreak. Mr. Gates proposes to call this group GERM – Global Epidemic Response and Mobilisation – and to fill it with experts from all over the world with a wide range of expertise (epidemiology, genetics, diplomacy, logistics, computer models, communication, etc.) who, when not actively working in the field, are based in the public health agencies of individual countries, in the regional offices of the WHO, and at the headquarters in Geneva.
Several times throughout the book, Gates explains how the most important job of this team would be to help run epidemic response exercises to see if the world is ready for the next big pandemic. However, GERM’s impact would not be limited to stopping pandemics, the group would also improve overall health worldwide, especially in poorer countries.
Another important part of prevention is to study and constantly monitor the spread of different viruses. Indeed, with the right investment and preparation, we will be able to rapidly test large numbers of people during an epidemic in the future. A rapid and efficient response is inevitably linked to the development of digital data collection systems so that public health offices can keep abreast of the situation in their communities, as well as the ability of governments around the world to establish working relationships with infectious disease experts from both the public and private sectors.
In the fourth chapter, the author explores an issue that has plagued countless countries and governments over the past two pandemic years: the need to teach and help people to protect themselves and others. The most useful way we can all do our part is through so-called ‘non-pharmaceutical inventions’ – NPIs – (masks, sanitisers, lockdowns, etc.). The irony of NPIs is that the more useful and effective they are, the easier they are to criticise. However, as our recent past shows, lockdowns – for example – have allowed the world’s economies to recover faster, simply by forcing people to stay indoors and thus saving lives. Of course, not everything that governments have implemented during the current pandemic has been right, nor will it be necessary in the future to repeat every single action taken in the fight against Covid-19. In particular, Gates focuses on the closure of schools, emphasising that schools will not need to be closed for extended periods of time in the future, especially if the world community is able to provide vaccines for everyone within six months.
However, what works for one place or country does not necessarily work for another. Lockdowns are a clear example of this disparity. As explained by the author, social distancing and lockdowns work more for wealthier countries and neighbourhoods; this is because wealthier people tend to work jobs that do not require them to travel and go out to work and because they can afford to stay indoors. Consequently, just as it is important to develop and implement the study of new vaccines, new tests for infectious diseases, and new treatments, it is equally important to work on the inequalities that afflict the global community and that, consequently, slow down the fight against future pandemics. Both locally and globally. A further recurring theme of the book is that the global community does not have to choose between preventing future pandemics or implementing global health: these are in fact mutually reinforcing. The greatest medical breakthrough of this pandemic – and one of the most important in recent decades – was the creation of vaccines against Covid-19. One study found that in the first year they saved more than 1 million lives and prevented 10 million hospitalisations in the US alone. The creation and distribution of the vaccines has been quite rapid, yet there are a number of problems that need to be solved before the next potential pandemic arrives, such as the huge disparity between those who have been vaccinated and those who have not. It is important to remember that the speed with which the vaccines against Covid-19 were implemented depends largely on a matter of ‘luck’. In fact, coronaviruses had already caused two previous outbreaks (SARS and MERS), allowing scientists to learn a great deal about the structure of the virus. In particular, the scientific community – before 2020 – had already identified Covid’s characteristic spike protein – the crown-like spikes of the virus of which countless images have been disseminated – as a potential target for vaccines, so when it came time to create new vaccines, scientists suddenly realised which part of the virus was most vulnerable to attack. In the next outbreak,’ Mr Gates warns us, ‘we might not be so lucky. It could be caused by a virus that scientists have not yet studied.
That is why, according to the author, the global community must adopt a serious plan for the development, production and distribution of new vaccines to prevent another pandemic. However, it is good to keep in mind the difficulty and especially the high costs of such processes. Production alone is a huge challenge: to avoid the inequalities we have seen in Covid-19, the world will have to be able to produce enough vaccines for everyone on the planet within six months of the discovery of a new pathogen (around 8 billion doses for a single-dose vaccine and 16 billion for a two-dose version). To do this, Bill Gates proposes – in chapter six – a four-step plan, starting with accelerating the invention of new vaccines.
All this inevitably requires a lot of practice. ‘Practice, practice, practice’, not surprisingly, is how the author wanted to call the next chapter, in which he advocates a series of simulation plans for the future that will help the global community prevent future pandemics from breaking out. So, just as countless governments spend millions on military exercises, so too should they in the future invest in health exercises that will make us all better prepared should another virus spread. Such exercises will not only be useful in preventing further pandemics, but will also help governments to be prepared in the event of a bioterrorist attack (which is the deliberate use of biological agents – such as viruses, bacteria or toxins – in actions against public safety). The very possibility of a bioterrorism attack is one of the reasons why governments around the world should invest more money in research, study and prevention of diseases that can ‘go global’. Inevitably, investments of public money – as well as the ability to cope with crises – are easier and more possible in richer countries, which greatly contributes to widening inequalities between developed and undeveloped or developing countries. In this regard, Mr. Gates proposes for the immediate future to start decreasing the gaps between rich and poor countries, especially in the area of public health since “where we live and how much money we have determines the chances we have of dying young or becoming wealthy adults”. Narrowing the gaps between wealthier and poorer countries not only helps to eliminate inequities in health and healthcare, but also helps to prevent the spread of new pandemics. Thus, both rich and poor countries benefit.
In conclusion, Bill Gates reminds us that investing public money in planning and preventing new pandemics will make people healthier, save lives and reduce the health gap between rich and poor, even when the world is not actually facing an active epidemic. How to prevent the next pandemic is therefore a handbook, an opportunity not only to prevent things from getting worse, but also to make them better. “We must not give up,” says Mr Gates, “living in perpetual fear of another global catastrophe. But we must be aware of this possibility and be willing to do something about it. I hope the world seizes this moment and invests in the necessary steps to make Covid-19 the last pandemic’.
Personally, I found reading this book extremely interesting, but above all enlightening. Reading How to prevent the next pandemic made me realise how many things are often taken for granted nowadays, especially for people like me who live in developed countries. From the distribution of vaccines to the possibility of finding sanitary devices or swabs, everything is easier if we just leave the house and walk a few metres to find a pharmacy. The Covid-19 pandemic affected every country in the world without distinction, but the ability of governments to respond to it was inevitably related to the type of country (rich or poor, developed or underdeveloped). I believe, therefore, that reading this handbook – as it should be read – can be extremely useful, both for individuals and for governments themselves.
HUMAN ADVISOR PROJECT 